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Chance To See Scott Brown New Hampshire Run Just Got Better

The chance we might see former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown enter the New Hampshire senate race just got more likely. In a Fox News op-ed Scott Brown criticized Democrats for their “hypocrisy” on ObamaCare, while suspiciously singling out the state of New Hampshire.

“In New Hampshire, only 16 of the state’s 26 hospitals are available on the federal exchange, meaning patients must either pay more to keep their current doctor or seek inferior care elsewhere,” Brown wrote.

“New Hampshire is not alone,” he added. “Across the country, some of the best hospitals are not available on plans on the exchange, leaving patients with difficult choices and unwanted sometimes, life threatening decisions.”

Brown has not announced plans for a 2014 Senate run, but he sure has kept reporters and pundits alert with his responses, refusing to rule out the chance, and has campaigned for candidates and headlined fundraisers in New Hampshire over the past few months.

Brown, though still trailing, has surged in polling against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in recent months. It is widely believed among pundits — including this one — that Brown may just be the Republicans’ best chance at defeated Shaheen in 2014.

Poll Date Sample Shaheen (D) Brown (R) Spread
PPP (D) 9/13 – 9/16 1038 RV 48 44 Shaheen +4
New England College 5/2 – 5/5 807 RV 54 35 Shaheen +19
Dartmouth 4/22 – 4/25 433 RV 44 30 Shaheen +14

The New Hampshire news outlet WMUR reported Tuesday that Brown will keynote the New Hampshire GOP Holiday Reception on December 19.

Republicans believe Shaheen is even more vulnerable in 2014, due to her support of ObamaCare, but the party has not offered up a strong candidate to challenge the sitting senator. Although three Republicans have already entered the primary, as highlighted by analysis in the PPD 2014 Senate map, they simply aren’t top-tier recruits.

Though he previously announced that he would not run next year for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, former Sen. Bob Smith has recently announced a bid. However, most Republicans correctly see Brown as the candidate who could make the race competitive for the GOP.

However, the former Massachusetts senator also hasn’t ruled out a run for Senate in his home state, and has ruled out a bid for the governor race in Massachusetts.

The op-ed is the latest move by Brown to suggest he is seriously considering a run, with the failed rollout of ObamaCare no doubt causing him to take a deeper look at the prospect than he perhaps would have prior.

Brown ended the opt-ed with a warning to Democratic senators for 2014.

“Not only is President Obama to blame here, so too are every single one of the Democratic senators who forced this fiasco on the American people,” he wrote.

“The president is not going to face voters again, but his congressional enablers and supporters will in less than a year. When they do, it’s going to be an unpleasant experience for any incumbent having to explain their deciding vote and continued support for the ongoing disaster of ObamaCare.”

This is the second piece Brown has used to warn Demcorats. In the first Fox News opt-ed, he told the story about his own election, and told Demcorats that they would have no where to run that voters could not find.

(Read More: View entire 2014 Senate Map with ratings and analysis)

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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Richard D. Baris

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