Weekly Jobless Claims Fall To 2000 Level, But Is It Really A Trend?

The Labor Department reported Thursday that weekly jobless claims declined 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000, the lowest level since April 2000. However, whether the numbers truly suggest the drop off in economic growth and labor market conditions was temporary or not, isn’t yet clear.

Claims for the prior week were revised up by 1,000 more than previously reported, but it was the eighth straight month that claims remained below 300,000.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to a still-high 290,000 last week.

A Labor Department analyst said the government had estimated claims for Louisiana because of a power outage in the state. However, the final numbers had little impact on the claims data as the estimate was close to the figure that Louisiana finally provided.

The four-week moving average of claims — which is widely considered a better measurement of labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility — fell by only 1,250 last week to 283,750. The discrepancy is somewhat explained by the recent change in the government’s method for determining the number of weekly jobless claims.

The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of claim benefits fell 74,000 to 2.25 million in the week ended April 18. Worth noting, the so-called continuing claims covered the period during the survey of households reflecting April’s unemployment rate. Continuing claims fell by 160,000 from the March to April survey periods, which considering the weak labor force participation rate, indicates another decline in the jobless rate from the 5.5 percent measured in March.