MNI Chicago Business Barometer: Midwest Manufacturing Declines

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, a gauge of Midwest manufacturing conducted by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), fell 4.3 points to 51.5 in August. That’s down from 55.8 in July and was fueled by a large setback in Order Backlogs and a deceleration in New Orders. Four of the five subindexes in the MNI Chicago Business Barometer declined, with only employment increasing and hitting a 16-month high.

“Economic activity slowed down into the summer, suggesting June’s momentum was only a temporary revival in activity,” said Lorena Castellanos, senior economist at MNI Indicators. “Overall, it wasn’t a rosy month, with Employment the only measure that gained traction. On a trend basis, though, the July-August growth rates paint a slightly better picture – albeit still weak – than that seen earlier in the year.”

Order Backlogs, which have been above 50 for only 2 months following 16 straight months below 50 (contractions), fell by 14.5 points to 41.7, moving deep into contraction territory and the lowest level since April. New Orders and Production, though both in expansion, also subtracted and were far softer than at the end of Q2.

The Prices Paid index was measured at the lowest level since March 2016.