Consumer Sentiment Ticks Down, Still Highest Since March 2004

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, ticked down slightly in February but remains higher than anytime in 13 years. The median forecast, derived from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 96 in February.

“While consumer confidence edged upward in late February, it remained slightly below the decade peak recorded in January,” Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said. “Overall, the Sentiment Index has been higher during the past three months than anytime since March 2004.”

Deep partisan divisions are cancelling each other out, the head of the survey said.

Democrats expect a recession and Republicans robust growth, as the difference between these two parties is almost identical to that found during the all-time peak and trough values in the Expectations Index, – 64.6 versus 64.4.

“The overall gain in the Expectations Index was due to self-identified Independents, who were much closer to the optimism of the Republicans than the pessimism of the Democrats,” Mr. Curtain added.

Still, the level of current consumer sentiment is far higher than in October before the presidential election, when it matched a two-year low. The index’s three month average is also at the highest it has been for nearly 13 years.

The Survey of Consumers indicated a growth rate of 2.7% in consumption during 2017.