Consumer Confidence Bounces Back in July, Current Optimism at 16-Year High

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index bounced backed in July to 121.1, up from a downwardly revised 117.3 in June. The Present Situation Index increased from 143.9 to 147.8, while the Expectations Index rose from 99.6 last month to 103.3.

“Consumer confidence increased in July following a marginal decline in June,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remained at a 16-year high (July 2001, 151.3) and their expectations for the short-term outlook improved somewhat after cooling last month. Overall, consumers foresee the current economic expansion continuing well into the second half of this year.”

The Consumer Confidence Index is based on a probability-design random sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN), a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 14.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in July. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 30.6 percent to 33.3 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 13.5 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also more favorable. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” rose from 32.0 percent to 34.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased slightly from 18.4 percent to 18.0 percent.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term outlook in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 20.1 percent to 22.9 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined from 10.0 percent to 8.2 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market improved. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead was unchanged at 19.2 percent, but those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 14.6 percent to 13.3 percent. Consumers, however, were not as upbeat about their income prospects as in June. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their income declined moderately from 20.9 percent to 20.0 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline increased from 9.3 percent to 10.0 percent.