Wholesale Trade Offers Positive Sign for 1Q GDP

The U.S. Census Bureau released new wholesale trade statistics for February and a build in inventories bodes well for first-quarter (1Q) gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018. Wholesale inventories were also revised higher for January.

Sales

February 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $495.9 billion.

That’s up 1.0% (±0.5%) from the revised January level and are now up 6.8% (±0.7%) from the February 2017 level. The December 2017 to January 2018 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 1.1% (±0.7%) to down 1.5% (±0.7%).

Inventories

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $625.6 billion at the end of February.

That’s up 1.0% (±0.2%) from the revised January level and total inventories are up 5.5% (±0.9%) from the revised February 2017 level. The January 2018 to February 2018 percentage change was revised from the advance estimate of up 1.1% (±0.2%) to up 1.0% (±0.2%).

Inventories/Sales Ratio

The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.26. The February 2017 ratio was 1.28.