Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly, Remains Near All-Time High in November

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at 135.7 (1985=100) in November, down from 137.9 in October but near the all-time high.

The Present Situation Index improved marginally from an already elevated 171.9 to 172.7. The Expectations Index decreased from 115.1 last month to 111.0 this month.

“Despite a small decline in November, Consumer Confidence remains at historically strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased slightly, with job growth the main driver of improvement.”

“Expectations, on the other hand, weakened somewhat in November, primarily due to a less optimistic view of future business conditions and personal income prospects.”

[su_table responsive=”yes”]

[/su_table]

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index conducted by Nielsen is based on a probability-design random sample. Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch, said the cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 13.

“Overall, consumers are still quite confident that economic growth will continue at a solid pace into early 2019,” Franco added. “However, if expectations soften further in the coming months, the pace of growth is likely to begin moderating.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved slightly in November.

Those saying business conditions are “good” rose slightly from 41.0% to 41.2%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 9.4% to 10.9%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” rose from 45.4% to 46.6%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell from 13.4% to 12.2%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future declined in November.

The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 26.3% to 22.5%. The percentage expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 7.2% to 8.8%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was somewhat mixed.

Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose marginally from 22.3% to 22.8%, while those anticipating fewer jobs also rose marginally, from 10.6% to 11.1%. That’s a net wash from the previous reading.

Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 24.7% to 21.5%. However, the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 8.2% to 7.8%.