The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported personal income and outlays for both March and February, which were both less-than-expected positive gains.
Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1%) in March. The consensus forecast was looking for a 0.4%, ranging from a low of 0.3% to a high of 0.5%. Disposable personal income (DPI) rose $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained $123.5 billion (0.9%).
| March | Consensus | Forecast Range | Actual |
| Personal Income – M/M ∆ | 0.4% | 0.3% — 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Consumer Spending – M/M ∆ | 0.7% | 0.5% — 0.8% | 0.9% |
| PCE Price Index M/M ∆ | 0.3% | 0.2% — 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Core PCE price index – M/M ∆ | 0.1% | 0.0% — 0.2% | 0.0% |
| PCE Price Index Y/Y ∆ | 1.7% | 1.6% — 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Core PCE price index – Yr/Yr ∆ | 1.7% | 1.6% — 1.9% | 1.6% |
Personal outlays rose $126.5 billion in March, while personal saving came in at $1.03 trillion. The personal saving rate, which is defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.5%.
Due to the partial government shutdown in the first quarter of 2019, the BEA also released a more complete personal income and outlays report for February.
Personal income increased $35.6 billion (0.2%) in February. The consensus forecast was looking for a 0.3%, ranging from a low of 0.1% to a high of 0.4%. Disposable personal income rose $23.0 billion (0.1%), and personal consumption expenditures gained by $11.7 billion (0.1%).
| February | Prior | Consensus | Forecast Range | Actual |
| Personal Income – M/M ∆ | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% — 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Consumer Spending – M/M ∆ | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% — 0.6% | 0.1% |
| PCE Price Index M/M ∆ | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% — 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core PCE price index – M/M ∆ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% — 0.2% | 0.1% |
| PCE Price Index Y/Y ∆ | 1.4% | 1.3% | ||
| Core PCE price index – Y/Y ∆ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% — 1.8% | 1.7% |
Personal outlays rose $14.8 billion in February, while the personal saving came in at $1.16 trillion. The personal saving rate was 7.3%.
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