Consumer Confidence Bounces Back to Beat Forecast in June

Despite Solid Gain, Consumer Confidence Index Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels in June Due to Present Situation Index

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased significantly by 12.2 points in June, easily beating economists’ expectations. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from a virtually unchanged reading of 85.9 in May.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 79.0 to a high of 101.3. The consensus forecast was 90.0. The historic low reading at 25.0 was measured during the Great Recession in February 2009.

“Consumer Confidence partially rebounded in June but remains well below pre-pandemic levels,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The re-opening of the economy and relative improvement in unemployment claims helped improve consumers’ assessment of current conditions, but the Present Situation Index suggests that economic conditions remain weak.”

The Present Situation Index — which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose from 68.4 to 86.2. The Expectations Index — gauging consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — increased from 97.6 in May to 106.0 this month.

“Looking ahead, consumers are less pessimistic about the short-term outlook, but do not foresee a significant pickup in economic activity,” Franco added. “Faced with an uncertain and uneven path to recovery, and a potential COVID-19 resurgence, it’s too soon to say that consumers have turned the corner and are ready to begin spending at pre-pandemic levels.”

The Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted monthly and based on a probability-design random sample for the Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 18.