Initial Jobless Claims, Insured Unemployment Fall Significantly By August End

Weekly Jobless Claims, Long-Term Unemployment Tumble to Beat Expectations

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell 130,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 881,000 for the week ending August 29. The previous week was upwardly revised slightly by 5,000 from 1,006,000 to 1,011,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 910,000 to a high of 1,175,000. The consensus forecast was 958,000.

The 4-week moving average fell 77,500 to 991,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 1,068,000 to 1,069,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell back to single digits for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%, and fell another 0.8 to 9.1% for August 22. The previous week was unrevised.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 22 tumbled 1,238,000 to 13,254,000. The previous week’s level was downwardly revised by 43,000 from 14,535,000 to 14,492,000.

The 4-week moving average was 14,496,250, a decrease of 709,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 10,500 from 15,215,750 to 15,205,250.

Extended Benefits were available in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and D.C. during the week ending August 8. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for that same period was 29,224,546.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 15 were in Hawaii (18.6), Nevada (16.4), California (16.3), Puerto Rico (16.1), New York (15.2), Connecticut (14.0), Louisiana (13.3), Georgia (12.6), the Virgin Islands (11.8), District of Columbia (11.7), and Massachusetts (11.7).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 22 were in California (+6,562), Illinois (+3,856), Pennsylvania (+1,926), Kansas (+1,061), and Rhode Island (+503), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-21,127), Texas (-9,248), New Jersey (-5,235), Virginia (-3,715), and North Carolina (-3,708).