Trump Factor: Republican Turnout Way Up, While Democrats Depressed at Ballot Box

On Super Tuesday, Republicans continued to shatter turnout records for party primaries and caucuses, while Democrats continued a concerning depressed trend. Unless there’s a significant change, Democrats have now demonstrated Hillary Clinton, the likely nominee, will face a clear deficit in the enthusiasm gap heading into the general election in November.

According to Edison Media Research, Republican turnout in Georgia increased 35% in 2016 vs. 2008; 25% in Massachusetts; 21% in Oklahoma; 63% in Tennessee; 57% in Vermont and a whopping 110% in Virginia. On the Democratic side, turnout fell in every Super Tuesday state by 32% (GA), 5% (Mass.), 22% (OK), 40% in Tennessee, 13% in Vermont and 14% in Virginia.

Further, in Virginia, more than 1 million votes were cast for Republican candidates, shattering the record set in 2000 by more than 50%. Democrats fell 200,000 votes short of their record, which was set in the 2008 primary. Donald J. Trump, who won the Virginia Republican primary, primarily drove up the turnout in the Old Dominion by increasing central and western Virginia’s share of the vote, exponentially.

“While, of course, there is validity to the observation some people come out to vote against Trump, we are seeing that as the primary driver,” said PPD senior political analyst Richard Baris. “It is always more difficult for opposition candidates to get voters to cast protest votes than it is for a movement candidate to get voters to vote for them. Looking at the numbers in Virginia and where these voters came from, it’s clear drove up actual Republican turnout so high he offset more liberal voters in Northern Virginia supporting Rubio.”

In Tennessee, Republican turnout exceeded 800,000 votes, decimating the previous record by nearly 50%. In Massachusetts, election officials said some 20,000 Democrats and independents crossed over and switched registration due to what they said was the “Trump phenomena.”

“The Republicans have tremendous energy. The Democrats don’t,” Trump said at a press conference slash victory speech Tuesday night at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. “When we are united, there is nobody who can beat us.”

In Iowa, a caucus and the first contest of the campaign season, Republican turnout saw a 50% increase from their previous record set in 2012. Ted Cruz, the winner, won more votes than any previous Iowa Republican caucus winner. Mr. Trump and Sen. Rubio, the second- and third-place finishers, also got enough votes that they would have won in any previous year. In New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada turnout was up by an average 27% compared to 2012.

In Nevada, where Mr. Trump won with 45.91% of the vote, the frontrunner earned roughly the same number of votes than all the 2012 Republican hopefuls combined.

Pre-election research conducted by PPD also found party affiliation by state is trending in favor of Republicans, setting up what could be a big win this fall. That is, if they don’t blow it by losing factions threatening to take their balls and go home.

“I think it’s a harbinger of things to come,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “All those people who line up for Donald Trump rallies and also lining up at the ballot box and the caucus site. Trump’s winning and nothing succeeds like success.”