Hurricane Dorian Forecasts Shift East, Uncertainty Still Remains [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models For August 31 At 9AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian Upgraded to Category 5, Forecasts Shift West [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

On Saturday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF models forecast Hurricane Dorian to shift east, though uncertainty over the impact to Florida remains. Dorian is currently a Category 4 hurricane packing maximum sustained winds near 145 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts.

The above forecasts include the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) over a 240-hour period beginning at August 31, 2019 at 9:00 AM EST.

The HWRF and HMON models show another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Hurricane Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble still has the storm over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said the track forecast becomes much more uncertain and problematic after 48 hours. The new track forecast for 72 to 120 hours will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, which places it between the old forecast and the
model consensus.

The NHC said “additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue” and stressed the “new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast.”

Further, large portions of the eastern coast remain in the cone of uncertainty and significant impacts could occur even if the center of the storm remains offshore.

Satellite imagery from Saturday morning show a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding an eye roughly 10 to 15 nautical miles wide. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches). A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening.