Republicans Continue to Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans continue to hold a one-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending July 7, 2013.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. The week before, the GOP also led by one – 39% to 38%.

As noted earlier, movement in individual House races has definitively shifted to the GOP, which causes the Generic Congressional Ballot to mislead to a certain degree. In other words, although the margin may be small, individual districts are much more favorable to the Republicans. This has been exacerbated an amount yet to be determined now that independent expenditure groups will target Democrats who voted against the “District of Columbia They Feel Pain Act” who are in conservative districts.

The Senate races are also turning out to be a favorable map to the GOP, but primary challenges have the potential to shake things up a bit.

The odd ball is, without a doubt, the gubernatorial races. Incumbents in the GOP are struggling, as are some Democrats, but the impact from a nationwide tide and an improving economic condition in a state can go a long way. But that is just impossible to know at this point.