Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Edges Down in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. The consensus forecast was +0.10, with forecasts ranging from a low of -0.2 to a high of +0.3.

Two of the four broad categories of indicators decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in February.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.18 in February from a neutral reading in January. Despite the monthly swings, the 3-month average had been steady and favorable, albeit moderate at +0.16 for both January and December.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, also a three-month moving average, fell to –0.05 in February from +0.12 in January.

Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions.

Thirty-seven indicators improved from January to February, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI edged up to –0.16 from –0.29. The manufacturing component in industrial production fell 0.4% in February after declining 0.5% in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.03 to the CFNAI in February, up slightly from +0.01 in January.

Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.07 in January. Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 20,000 in February after adding a whopping 311,000 the previous month.

The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.06 in February from –0.03 in January.