The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “second” estimate for second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 hit the consensus forecast at 2.0%. While that’s down slightly from the “advance” estimate of 2.1%, strong consumer spending easily beat the high end of the forecast range.
| Indicator (Q2 2019) | Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual |
| Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% to 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.3% | 4.7% |
| GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.5% | 2.1% |
| GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.4% | 1.4% |
The third and final estimate for Q1 2019 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.1%.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 2.1% in Q2 after rising 3.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — gained 2.1% in Q2 after 3.2% in Q1.
| Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Current-dollar GDP | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Real GDI | … | 2.1% |
| Average of Real GDP and Real GDI | … | 2.1% |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| PCE price index | 2.3% | 2.3% |
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.2% versus an increase of 0.8% in Q1. The PCE price index gained 2.3%, a solid gain from the 0.4% in Q1. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.7% in Q2 after increasing 1.1% in Q1.
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