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Sunday, September 15, 2019
HomeNewsEconomy“Second” Estimate for Q2 2019 GDP Hits Forecast at 2%

“Second” Estimate for Q2 2019 GDP Hits Forecast at 2%

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Consumer Spending Easily Beats Consensus Forecast, Tops High End of Forecast Range

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “second” estimate for second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 hit the consensus forecast at 2.0%. While that’s down slightly from the “advance” estimate of 2.1%, strong consumer spending easily beat the high end of the forecast range.

Indicator (Q2 2019)PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR2.1%2.0%1.9% to 2.1%2.0%
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR4.3%4.3%4.1% to 4.3%4.7%
GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR2.4%2.4%2.4% to 2.5%2.1%
GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR2.4%1.4%

The third and final estimate for Q1 2019 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.1%.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 2.1% in Q2 after rising 3.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — gained 2.1% in Q2 after 3.2% in Q1.

Advance EstimateSecond Estimate
Real GDP2.1%2.0%
Current-dollar GDP4.6%4.6%
Real GDI2.1%
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI2.1%
Gross domestic purchases price index2.2%2.2%
PCE price index2.3%2.3%

The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.2% versus an increase of 0.8% in Q1. The PCE price index gained 2.3%, a solid gain from the 0.4% in Q1. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.7% in Q2 after increasing 1.1% in Q1.

Written by
Staff Writing Group

PPD Business, the economy-reporting arm of People's Pundit Daily, is "making sense of current events." We are a no-holds barred, news reporting pundit of, by, and for the people.

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