Consumer Spending Easily Beats Consensus Forecast, Tops High End of Forecast Range
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “second” estimate for second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 hit the consensus forecast at 2.0%. While that’s down slightly from the “advance” estimate of 2.1%, strong consumer spending easily beat the high end of the forecast range.
| Indicator (Q2 2019) | Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual |
| Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% to 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.3% | 4.7% |
| GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.5% | 2.1% |
| GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 2.4% | 1.4% |
The third and final estimate for Q1 2019 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.1%.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 2.1% in Q2 after rising 3.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — gained 2.1% in Q2 after 3.2% in Q1.
| Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Current-dollar GDP | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Real GDI | … | 2.1% |
| Average of Real GDP and Real GDI | … | 2.1% |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| PCE price index | 2.3% | 2.3% |
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.2% versus an increase of 0.8% in Q1. The PCE price index gained 2.3%, a solid gain from the 0.4% in Q1. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.7% in Q2 after increasing 1.1% in Q1.
