Jobless Claims Rise 53k, Insured Unemployment Falls to 6.8%

Most Strict Lockdown States Disproportionately Hurting Labor Market Indicators

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose by 53,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 898,000 for the week ending October 10. The previous week was upwardly revised by 5,000 to 845,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 845,000. The consensus forecast was 825,000.

The 4-week moving average was 866,250, up 8,000 from the previous week, which was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell significantly to 6.8% for the week ending October 3, a decline of 0.9 from the previous week, which was revised higher 0.2 to 7.7. It first fell to single digits post-Covid-19 shutdown for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The most strictest lockdown states, which consequently saw the highest number of infections, are disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 26 were in Hawaii (17.9), California (16.1), Nevada (12.5), Puerto Rico (10.5), Louisiana (10.3), Georgia (10.1), New York (10.0), District of Columbia (9.1), Michigan (9.0), and New Mexico (8.8).

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for October 3 was 10,018,000, a decline of 1,165,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 207,000 from 10,976,000 to 11,183,000.

The 4-week moving average was 11,481,750, a decrease of 682,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 51,750 from 12,112,250 to 12,164,000.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 3 were in Florida (+9,933), Illinois (+6,877), Massachusetts (+4,021), North Carolina (+2,907), and Maryland (+1,714), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-3,504), Kansas (-3,312), Pennsylvania (-3,111), Louisiana (-2,835), and Washington (-2,474).