ECMWF Update: Euro Model Forecast for Hurricane Michael (10-10-2018 12PM)

The Euro model (ECMWF) forecasts Hurricane Michael to make landfall at the Florida Panhandle and Big Ben along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday afternoon. The model above tracks over a 240-hour period beginning the morning of Wednesday, October 10, 2018.

Specific location for landfall ranges from Apalachicola to Panama City, which are already seeing significant flooding.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.

Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).

H/T: Tropical Tidbits