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News, Politics

Former EPA official John Beale senior policy adviser’s pretend world has come to an end. John Beale’s fake CIA agent job cost the taxpayers approximately one million dollars.

Beale’s imaginary world began over a decade ago and he managed to collect unearned pay over thirteen years implying he needed to take off one workday a week for CIA missions.

He allegedly billed the government for first-class plane tickets due to a false back injury and he was paid for a spy job that never existed.

One first-class flight to London cost taxpayers $14 thousand, yet a coach ticket would have cost just one thousand dollars.

In 2000, he started indicating on his EPA electronic calendar that he was working at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations.

Beale told an EPA manager he had been assigned to a special advisory group and continued to take the extra day off until 2008.

Former EPA official John Beale took off for approximately six months, explaining to his managers and staff that he was working for “Langley,” where the CIA is based.

Judge Ellen Huvelle sentenced John Beale a thirty-two month prison sentence, he owes more than $500 thousand in forfeiture, and included a two year supervised release.

Beale stated that there was “no excuse” for his actions and his motive was “simple greed.”

He addressed the court, “I own this. This is on me. Shame has become my constant companion.” Judge Huvelle concurred, she called Beale’s actions “a stain on the federal workforce.”

Beale was sentenced in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. According to court documents the maximum prison term for such a crime as this is ten years.

This case is one of the most outlandish schemes against the government in recent history. United State Attorneys Ronald Machen and James Smith wrote, “The nature of his deception was outrageous and notorious. Although, the defendant has no prior criminal history, his first criminal conviction was a blockbuster.”

Inspector General Arthur Elkins and his office unraveled Beale’s imaginary spy world. Elkins stated, “an absence of even basic internal controls at the EPA,” gave Beale the ability to get away with the fraud for so long. 

EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy expressed concerns about all of Beale’s expenses and before the probe began he retired

Assistant Inspector General Patrick Sullivan interviewed approximately 40 people with only one suspecting Beale’s life as a secret agent was a fraud.

Investigators compared Beale’s cellphone records to his travel expenses and the results were quite astonishing.  Records indicated that when he claimed to be in Pakistan or other locations on CIA business, he was at his Cape Cod vacation home.

Former EPA official John Beale senior policy

Elections

Senate Mcconnell (left), Matt Bevin (center), Grimes (Right) — Photo AP

The Kentucky Senate race is the fourth article in what will be a succession of expanded analysis released for the PPD 2014 Senate Map. Mitch McConnell is arguably the least popular senator in the United States Senate, and he will have to win the political fight of his life this cycle if he hopes to soon become Senate Majority Leader McConnell.

Independent Democratic groups began launching ads early against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. They think he’s vulnerable against the right challenger. Despite opposing the Gang of Eight amnesty bill, and because of his performance on the effort to Defund ObamaCare and last year’s debt ceiling deal, Senate Conservatives Fund will back Matt Bevin, a Louisville business. Bevin has officially filed to run in 2014 against McConnell and to his right.

Recent polling found that Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, whom Democrats had high hopes for, has already lost her early polling lead against the minority leader. Grimes is considered the Democrats’ strongest potential candidate in the state, their “dream candidate.” That is not totally sarcastic, because there was good reason to view Grimes as such.

She impressively won more than 60 percent of the vote in her 2011 statewide win. But she has floundered and shown a tremendous lack of depth during public appearances, prompting the liberal DailyBeast.com to publish a column entitle, “How Not To Beat McConnell.” Democratic groups have constantly tried to push her to the left on issues such as gay marriage and ObamaCare, which are both deeply unpopular in her state. Thus far, Grimes has been unable to show that she is a women of her conviction, repeatedly wavering on public questioning and dodging straightforward answers.

McConnell has amassed a massive war chest for his reelection effort and is a worthy, shrewd campaigner, which has discouraged other possible Democratic candidates, such as ex-state party chair Bill Garmer (D) and former Miss America Heather French Henry (D).

Though Democrats have been able to stay completive at the state level, at the federal level Kentucky has proven to be stridently Republican in recent years, and it was 1 of 8 states where Mitt Romney won at least 60 percent of the vote in 2012. In other words, we’re going to need to see significant changes in this contest before we start considering the Kentucky Senate race truly competitive. Even if Grimes is the sole Democratic candidate, which it appears will be the case, it’s very difficult to imagine McConnell losing in a strongly anti-Obama state amid the ObamaCare disaster.

In polling, Grimes has enjoyed no more than 47 percent of the vote, which I believe is her ceiling in Kentucky. In 2010, when Sen. Rand Paul easily won his Kentucky Senate race riding a wave of Tea Party support, the Cook PVI for Kentucky was R+10. In 2014, the Partisan Voting Index is R+14, far too Republican to consider the 47 percent Grimes once enjoyed anything but her ceiling. Grimes and the Democratic Party would need to run a campaign that is more than a campaign based on an anti-McConnell message, because she will not be the only one offering that message.

From the viewpoint of PPD, Minority Leader McConnell has to worry more about his right flank being assaulted by Matt Bevin and the Senate Conservatives Fund than he does his Alison Lundergan Grimes on his left. McConnell has a bigger challenge in Matt Bevin in the primary, than Grimes in the general.

McConnell led Bevin early in one survey by 52 points, but that lead has evaporated to 25 points. The toppling on the minority leader is still a heavy, but Matt Bevin is closing the gap, to be sure, which is why McConnell has taken him so seriously. His campaign has always acknowledged the opportunity to exploit an antiestablishment fervor in Kentucky.

The conservative FreedomWorks PAC announced their endorsement of Matt Bevin, as well as the Madison Project who not only endorsed but opened 5 offices throughout the state to help get out the vote for Matt Bevin.

Despite what others have predicted, the anti-establishment fervor has caused McConnell to take a page out of the Rand Paul playbook, which includes his nephew. This is a sure sign that he knows he will need Paul’s conservative credentials. Speaking of which, the libertarian-leaning Republican has, in fact, endorsed McConnell in this race.

Either way, despite the hoopla, without real developments in this race, in reality the Kentucky Senate race outside of dreamland, is rated “Likely Republican” on the PPD 2014 Senate Map. McConnell is also slightly favored to win the primary, as of now, but that could change without even showing up on the pollsters’ radar.

View Polling Below Or Return To PPD 2014 Senate Map

Poll Date Sample Grimes (D) McConnell (R) Spread
PPD Average 12/12 – 2/3 — 43.3 42.3 Grimes +0.5
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA 1/30 – 2/3 1082 RV 46 42 Grimes +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/29 – 1/30 500 LV 42 42 Tie
PPP (D) 12/12 – 12/15 1509 RV 42 43 McConnell +1
PPP (D) 4/5 – 4/7 1052 RV 41 45 McConnell +4
PPP (D) 12/7 – 12/9 1266 RV 40 47 McConnell +7

 

Poll Date Sample Bevin (R) Grimes (D) Spread
PPD Average 12/12 – 1/30 — 41.7 41.0 Bevin +0.7
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA 1/30 – 2/3 1082 RV 38 43 Grimes +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/29 – 1/30 500 LV 48 42 Bevin +6
PPP (D) 12/12 – 12/15 1509 RV 39 38 Bevin +1

 

Poll Date Sample McConnell Bevin Spread
PPD Average 12/12 – 2/3 — 54.0 27.5 McConnell +26.5
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA 1/30 – 2/3 404 RV 55 29 McConnell +26
PPP (D) 12/12 – 12/15 540 RV 53 26 McConnell +27

The Kentucky Senate race is the fourth

Elections

The Louisiana Senate race is the third article in what will be a succession of expanded analysis released for the PPD 2014 Senate Map. Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu represents a conservative state, making the Louisiana Senate race along with Mark Pryor (D-AR), one of the most attractive targets in the country for Republicans.

Yet, Landieu says that despite its deep unpopularity, if given the chance she would vote for ObamaCare again. Her campaign strategy clearly operates under the assumption that she is otherwise finished in the U.S. Senate without a massive showing from a small yet formidable Democratic base in a state that Mitt Romney won with 58 percent of the vote in 2012.

Landrieu’s campaign spent $250,000 broadcasting an ad that responds to an ad the billionaire Koch Brothers ran, accusing Landrieu of “backtracking and avoiding accountability” over her support for ObamaCare. Landrieu’s ad buy covered the entire state except the Democratic stronghold of New Orleans, where Landrieu’s brother is mayor, whom she hopes will drive up enough turnout.

“This is a promise you made, this is a promise you should keep,” Sen. Mary Landrieu says in the ad. It is a risky strategy, to be sure.

Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy looks to be the favorite for her opponent for 2014, as Republican Rep. John Fleming has opted out of the race. Ex-Rep. Jeff Landry has not ruled out running, but is believed to be an unlikely candidate. Early polling has shown this race to be very, very close.

Even before the ObamaCare debacle Harper Polling, which is a conservative alternative to the liberal PPP polling firm, surveyed the race in April and found Landrieu leading the unknown 46 – 41 percent. Landrieu has a high floor – because of black voter support – but also a low ceiling that makes it hard to achieve a majority on Election Day.

In Louisiana a plurality isn’t good enough. The winner is required to get 50 percent plus one of the total votes. Louisiana’s election on November 4, 2014, is actually a jungle primary, the only one in the country. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote that day, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election on December 6. This is nothing new for Landrieu, who has been there a few times already.

Landrieu only managed to get a majority in the first round of balloting once out of her 3 election victories, in the 2008 Democratic landslide and with only 52 percent of the vote. Aside from Cassidy, other GOP potentials are state school board President Chas Roemer, son of ex-governor and one-time 2012 presidential candidate Buddy Roemer, and Rob Maness.

Landrieu “faces a tidal wave of unfavorable demographic voting trends,” according to SMOR’s pollster. Pundits tend to focus on the wrong demographic trends in Louisiana, which sound favorable to Democrats. In reality, when first elected in 1996, 40 percent of Louisiana’s voters were white Democrats. Today, white Democrats account for only 22 percent of Louisiana’s electorate, but it is even worse than it sounds when we look at ideological leanings.

Voter registration is trending against Democratic candidates, but 48 percent of Louisiana voters say they agree with Republicans despite which party they say they chose when they registered to vote. Only 36 percent say they agree with Democrats. When we look at the Partisan Voting Index), we see an R+12, well above the D+2 threshold for an 83 percent chance of loss.

ObamaCare is producing an anti-incumbent sentiment in the state, as well. Despite leading with 41 percent in a three-way matchup, which would be crushed if Republicans consolidated their vote, when asked about seniority, a whopping 56 percent wanted someone new and 37 percent wanted to keep her in office.

In 2008, there were 5 names on the ballot in the Louisiana Senate race, and there were 9 in 2002. Typically, it would make sense for Cassidy (or whichever GOP candidate it turns out to be) to prefer a larger field and, therefore, force a runoff against Landrieu, because turnout in the second round might be more favorable to the Republicans. Except, that really doesn’t iron out when we examine the empirical evidence, which actually suggests otherwise.

In 2002, which Landrieu won, and also in a midterm atmosphere, turnout only fell less than 1 percent from the Election Day primary to the runoff election. This certainly could change, but my political instinct is telling me that Landrieu — nor the GOP candidate — will be able to rely upon such a development.

President Obama has an approval rating in the low 40s — 41.7 percent — in Louisiana, which when factored in to the model used at PeoplesPunditDaily.com, all other things considered, predicts Landrieu would receive no more than 47 percent of the vote. If there was a three-way jungle primary, then we would get a runoff election. Recent polling suggests that would not be beneficial for Landrieu, despite past historical Election Day outcomes in Louisiana Senate races.

The voters will either decide to keep or fire Landrieu in the Louisiana Senate race, whether in a run-off or on the first ballot. Either way, it appears she is in a lot of trouble, which is why this race is currently rated a “Toss-Up” on the PPD 2014 Senate Map.

View Polling Below Or Return To PPD 2014 Senate Map

Poll Date Sample Cassidy (R) Landrieu (D) Spread
Rasmussen Reports 1/28 – 1/29 500 LV 44 40 Cassidy +4
PPP (D) 8/16 – 8/19 721 RV 40 50 Landrieu +10
Harper (R) 8/14 – 8/15 596 LV 47 45 Cassidy +2

 

Sen. Mary Landrieu represents a conservative state,

News, Politics

Topping $8 million spent on both sides, the race to hold or unseat North Carolina Senator Hagan has drawn the largest amount of money nationwide, thus far. According to CQ Roll Call, outside Republican groups outspent their Democratic counterparts in North Carolina, $5.7 million to $2.6 million, which includes the $750,000 airtime purchase in early December by Senate Majority PAC and about a $4 million total investment from Americans for Prosperity.

senator hagan

The largest spenders on both sides, thus far, have been Americans for Prosperity, and Senate Majority PAC, whose aims to hold on to the Democrat majority. Both groups were also big spenders in the 2012 election cycle, but have been exceedingly generous with their spending earlier than usual this cycle.

There is little doubt that Senator Hagan is one of the more vulnerable Democratic senators this cycle, as the race is rated a “Toss-Up” on the PPD 2014 Senate Map, but the Tar Heel State has some of the largest and most expensive markets of any top Senate race states this cycle, which can account somewhat for North Carolina being the top-spot as of now.

But the competitiveness of the race is more likely the culprit, with a gap between party spending that is currently unrivaled by other states. Both Senator Hagan and Barack Obama have seen their numbers in the state plummet, with a myriad of broken promises fueling voter discontent with the health care law.

North Carolina voters never supported ObamaCare, despite Senator Hagan repeatedly promising they could keep their health coverage if they liked it. But she voted for it anyway, and now finds herself fighting for her political survival.

The figures are based on information provided by media consultants in both parties reflecting spending leading up to December 10. However, not all of the money was spent as independent expenditures, which by law must be filed to the Federal Election Commission, making exact figures unavailable.

Topping $8 million spent on both sides,

Elections

NOTE: View updated analysis of the 2014 Arkansas Senate race

The Arkansas Senate race is the second in what will be a succession of expanded analysis released for the PPD 2014 Senate Map. Pundits and pollsters are just now beginning to catch up with the rating foreseen by us for months now, which is to say, the fundamentals of the race have always justified a “Leans Republican” rating.

Sen. Mark Pryor once promised Arkansans, “Are we gonna be able to stick with our plan? The answer is yes.” Now, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is running to the right as fast as he can, calling for a delay on the individual mandate and voting with the GOP on guns.

Liberals say he betrayed them on gun control, but that is an act aiming to paint him unafraid of standing against party and president. And it’s a smart strategy in a state that President Obama lost by 24 points. Feeling the heat, Pryor began running ads in Arkansas early, defending his vote against expanded background checks, in which he claims that “No one from New York or Washington tells me what to do. I listen to Arkansas.”

Sen. Pryor has already spent close to $900,000 on ads, including his one ad, which underscored how prevalent the Bible has been in his life. It’s a bit ridiculous considering it is coming from a man whose party removed God from their platform in 2012, but it is at least $500,000 more than Cotton, whose mother starred in his recent ad.

Pryor is now lagging behind in polling enough to consider the race “Leans Republican,” but save for one early Republican pollster showing Cotton with a 7-point lead, he wasn’t always. Our rating is largely a reflection of the demographic realities of the state and how they have changed since Pryor first ran for election, as well as the relationship between presidential job approval and Senate election outcomes.

People’s Pundit Daily uses a model that factors in PVI, or Partisan Voting Index, in order to gauge trends in a state’s voting behavior, as well as demographic-specific trends. PVI is useless to predict actual margins, but it can offer comparative analysis when attempting to predict the “chance of success” rate for a particular candidate.

For instance, the southern region of the state – which was the real key to Pryor’s past victories, has undergone a generational shift that favors Cotton. Name recognition from being his father’s son has helped Pryor outperform Democrats in the region, but he will likely not be able to rely on that name now since most of those voters will be 89. This is particularly true with an opponent like Tom Cotton, who represents the large southern swing district and is well-liked.

The Partisan Voting Index was R+9 in the state when now-Senator Boozman defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln by nearly 21 points. Now, PVI for the state is R+14. President Obama, according to Gallup, has struggled to have an approval rating in the state above 35 percent. It has averaged around 34.5 percent in 2014, increasing only modestly with his national numbers.

Coupled with a midterm turnout that will likely result in fewer Democratic voters than during a presidential cycle, Republican Rep. Tom Cotton is favored.

Nearly 61 percent of Arkansans voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Rep. Tom Cotton emerged as the clear favorite on the Republican side easily, as most Republicans wanted Cotton to run. Cotton is the choice of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth and appears to be well-liked, much to the chagrin of Democrats who hoped to paint him as extreme.

It was clear early in 2013 that Pryor was very vulnerable, perhaps the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection. For the reasons stated above, he is obviously in deep trouble, likely more-so than the polling and pundits are showing. Arkansas is simply not the same state it was when his father was elected, or even when Senator Pryor was first elected (I generally agree with Sean Trende’s analysis, but I am more bullish on Cotton’s chances).

View Updated Polling Below Or Return To PPD 2014 Senate Map

Poll Date Sample Cotton (R) Pryor (D) Spread
PPD Average 10/8 – 2/10 — 45.5 41.5 Cotton +4
Impact Management Group (R) 2/10 – 2/10 1202 RV 46 42 Cotton +4
Rasmussen Reports 2/4 – 2/5 500 LV 45 40 Cotton +5
The Arkansas Poll 10/10 – 10/17 LV 37 36 Cotton +1
Impact Management Group (R) 10/24 – 10/24 911 RV 42 41 Cotton +1
Talk Business Poll 10/8 – 10/8 603 LV 41 42 Pryor +1
WFB/The Polling Company (R) 8/6 – 8/7 600 RV 43 45 Pryor +2
Harper (R) 8/4 – 8/5 587 LV 43 41 Cotton +2

 

The Arkansas Senate race is the second

News, US

A federal judge says the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of phone records, or NSA surveillance program, violates Fourth Amendment privacy rights. The judge put his decision on hold pending a nearly certain government appeal.

U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon has granted the preliminary injunction being sought by plaintiffs Larry Klayman and Charles Strange, concluding they were likely to prevail in their constitutional challenge to the NSA spying program.

Leon ruled Monday that the two men are likely to be able to show that their privacy interests outweigh the government’s interest in collecting the data. Leon says that means that massive collection program is an unreasonable search under the Constitution’s Fourth Amendment.

The collection program was disclosed by former National Security Agency systems analyst Edward Snowden, provoking a heated debate over Fourth Amendment rights and other civil liberties.

A federal judge says the National Security

Polls

Any effort to repeal ObamaCare, as Republicans have endlessly attempted in the House, would be contingent upon intense public opposition. As more and more Americans focus on the health care law, the intensity on the side of the opposition has grown substantially.

A round of new polling shows some serious danger signs for incumbent Democrats in red or purple states, whom of which the American people will have to ouster if they decide that the only way to fix the state of their health care is to repeal ObamaCare.

A new Rasmussen poll found opposition to the government mandating the purchase of health coverage is at an all-time high, with 58 percent of likely voters in opposition, with just 33 percent in favor. The passion remains on the side of the opponents, as only 19 percent say they have a “Very Favorable” view of the law, while 47 percent have a “Very Unfavorable” one.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters under 40 favor the health insurance mandate, compared to 31% of middle-age adults and 28% of senior citizens.

Intensity has grown as more Americans have been paying closer attention to ObamaCare in the news. Now, 87 percent of all voters are following news of the health care law “at least somewhat” closely, including 55 percent who are following the news “Very Closely.”

Voters now overwhelmingly — 81 percent — want to change or repeal the health care law, with 1-out-of-2 saying they want to scrap it completely and start over again.

 

The reason: Because it is affecting the everyday lives of Americans.

In a recent Associated Press/GfK poll, 69 percent of Americans said their premiums will be increasing, with 59 percent saying out-of-pocket expenses, such as co-pays and deductibles will increase. Of the people who know what the future of their health care will look like under the law, it isn’t good for the Democratic Party. In total, a whopping 77 percent blame the changes to their insurance on ObamaCare, with just 21 percent believing that their coverage will be more generous.

The president will soon have a problem piecing together a coalition strong enough to preserve the law as it is, with even those who traditionally supported ObamaCare now rethinking that position. In the latest polling, even the “Political Class” is now divided when asked about the individual mandate, while most “Mainstream” voters are opposed to it, but in higher numbers than before.

The problem is fundamental, because Americans favor market choice over a few choices designed by the government.

Despite the Democrats believing they know best, 73 percent believe individuals should have the right to choose between different types of health insurance plans, including some that cost more and cover just about all medical procedures and some that cost less and cover only major medical procedures.

While the support for choice is overwhelming, when wording varies, even more voters — 83 percent — think individuals should have the right to choose between different types of health insurance plans, including some with higher deductibles and lower premiums and others with lower deductibles and higher premiums, and only 8 percent don’t believe individuals should have that right to choose.

If these numbers persist, Democrats may find themselves with just two choices: 1) scrap or drastically alter the law, or 2) be defeated and Republicans will do it for them.

New polling shows that more and more

Elections

Alaska-Senate

Incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D)

The Alaska Senate race is the first in what will be a succession of expanded analysis released for the PPD 2014 Senate Map Predictions.

As long as the Republican Party avoids an extraordinary divisive primary between Joe Miller, the Tea Party upset victor in the primary who went on to lose to incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski in her historic write-in campaign in the general election, and Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, then this seat should be a prime GOP turnover.

That’s not to say that Miller couldn’t unseat Begich, but at the moment it certainly looks like Treadwell has a better shot. The chance of Miller receiving that nomination is examined in “Why Joe Miller Could Pull Off An Upset Against The GOP Establishment, Again,” which is far better than the media gives him credit for, but even Alaskan Republicans view him in a relatively unfavorable light. In a May survey conducted for the Tea Party Leadership Fund, Harper Polling found he had a 34/49 percent favorable/unfavorable rating among potential GOP primary voters, though as I will get into shortly, polling Alaska is misleading.

Recently, the Combat Veterans For Congress PAC endorsed Joe Miller, who is a combat veteran, which will no doubt help his bid. The group was fairly successful in their endorsements in 2010 and 2012.

Still, this is very good news for Republican Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who made his bid for the seat official early. Treadwell has already attacked his GOP opponent, saying “I believe I don’t scare people. Joe does sometimes.” Former Natural Resources Commissioner and Attorney General Dan Sullivan has decided to enter the race, and he or Miller may be able to cast Treadwell as the establishment out-of-towner – after all, he is a Connecticut native. Still, the Treadwell family name has solid Alaskan credentials and is well-liked, though Sullivan — a former Marine — will likely continue to hammer him on it.

While others, such as Air Force Veteran John Jaramillo are running — whom Joe Miller beat out for the endorsement along with Sullivan — they have yet to gain any traction. The list also includes Kathleen Tonn, pro-life activist.

Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Mark Begich is trying desperately hold onto this seat, actually describing himself as “something of a Rockefeller Republican,” and has also been a target for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg because of his “Nay” vote on the Toomey-Manchin bill. Begich recently released a radio ad touting his own opposition to administration policies affecting Alaska, including pushing for more oil drilling and mining.

PPD changed this rating due to a variety of factors, but the final draw has been the failed ObamaCare rollout and broken promises. Begich’s own comments give you an idea of how much trouble he believes he is in. When selling ObamaCare Begich said, “If you got an insurance plan now, you like it, you keep it,” now he sings this tune: “Do I have issues with ObamaCare? Yes.”

Other pundits — well — are wrong about this race. Any reliance on polling in Alaska is fool-hearted, particularly because polling conducted showing Begich leading Treadwell occurred before the shutdown, before the ObamaCare disaster, and was by the Democratic pollster, Public Policy Polling. Polling in Alaska is notoriously inaccurate, especially from PPP, but polling also overestimated Begich when he first won election in 2008 by a measly 3,953 votes just one week after his GOP opponent was convicted on corruption charges, which were later tossed out.

A few more tidbits on polling in Alaska: Just one pollster had Lisa Murkowski ahead in 2004 and one pollster had her beating Miller in the 2010 GOP primary by 32 points. Similarly, all but one of the surveys conducted for the 2010 Alaska Senate race in the general election showed Miller winning the 3-way contest, with the final CNN/ORC poll having them tied at 37 percent. PPP, which may pundits are overly reliant upon, ridiculously found the Democratic candidate tied with Murkowski at 30 percent, while Miller enjoyed a significant 7 percent advantage on both. Obviously, she turned out to be successful in her historic write-in campaign.

So, why did I go on and on regarding Alaska polling? Because I will, no doubt, catch flack for calling this race “Leans Republican” before the GOP has even decided upon a candidate. I will make adjustments if I must, but Republican primary voters more than outnumber Democratic voters 2 to 1, and even if Joe Miller is the candidate, Mark Begich is in deep, deep trouble. In fact, he never should have won the race in the first place, and by no measure of logic could you justify a “Toss-Up” rating if the election were held today.

In a deeply red state with a PVI of R+12, which Mitt Romney easily won by 13 points, this would be a “Safe Republican” seat, but it’s not yet due to the potential for a toxic primary. Nevertheless, Begich boasts defeating scandal-laden Senator Ted Stevens in 2008 — a Democratic wave election no less — by under just 4,000 votes.

Voter registration in the state has moved more Republican from 2010 to 2014, as of Jan. 3, 2013, with registered Republicans outnumbering registered Democrats by nearly 2 to 1. And this trend has just gotten worse over the last year. According to Gallup, Alaska is now the 6th most conservative state in the union, with Democrats losing ground by 20 points over the last year alone. President Obama has an abysmal approval rating of around 33 percent in the state, which is too low for Begich to simply avoid campaigning with the president.

Alaska has a large number of undeclared and nonaffiliated registered voters, but save for the 2004 election that resulted in a slight Republican victory thanks to the nil popularity of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s father as governor, as well as the wave Begich road in on in 2008, they have broken more and more for Republicans each cycle.

And the Democrat now faces a national political environment in 2014 that favors Republicans. This race can easily begin moving farther to the right, literally any day, but we will have to wait and see until a few developments, which include but are not limited to post-shutdown/ObamaCare rollout polling, and GOP primary events.

View Polling Below Or Return To 2014 Senate Map

Polling Data

Begich vs. Treadwell

Poll Date Sample Begich (D) Treadwell (R) Spread
PPP (D)** 1/30 – 2/1 850 RV 43 37 Begich +6
Hays Research (D) 8/14 – 8/14 388 LV 50 39 Begich +11
PPP (D) 7/25 – 7/28 890 RV 44 40 Begich +4
PPP (D) 2/4 – 2/5 1129 RV 47 39 Begich +8
Harper (R) 1/29 – 1/30 1157 LV 44 34 Begich +10

Begich vs. Sullivan

Poll Date Sample Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Spread
PPP (D)** 1/30 – 2/1 850 RV 41 37 Begich +4
PPP (D) 7/25 – 7/28 890 RV 46 39 Begich +7
PPP (D) 2/4 – 2/5 1129 RV 47 41 Begich +6

The Alaska Senate race is the first

News, World

IDF soldiers patrol near the Israel-Lebanon border. (Photo: REUTERS/Ali Hashisho)

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military says one Israeli soldier has been killed in a shooting along the northern border with Lebanon.

In a statement, the Israeli army said the Israeli soldier was killed by a sniper from the Lebanese army. An initial IDF assessment, based on data from lookout positions on the border, concluded that a soldier from the Lebanese Armed Forces responsible for firing was acting alone.

Six to seven shots were fired at the IDF soldier who was standing on a road adjacent to the electronic border fence with Lebanon.

It was not immediately clear what sparked the shooting incident, but it raised the possibility of Israeli retaliation.

Earlier, the army said it had protested the shooting with U.N. peacekeeping forces and said it would not “tolerate aggression against the state of Israel.”

“We are sending messages to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon regarding the severity of this incident. There is no indication that an infiltration into our territory occurred,” an army source said. “The IDF is prepared in the North,” he warned.

People’s Pundit Daily will updated the report when more information becomes available, but the shooting occurred around 9 p.m., and Lebanese soldiers were seen immediately grouping on their side of Israel’s northern border.

JERUSALEM -- The Israeli military says one

US

The typical collusion of media bias following a school shooting was on full display after 18-year old Karl Halverson Pierson critically wounded one student before taking his own life at Arapahoe High School. But KTLA-TV in Los Angeles topped Piers Morgan and others for dishonest, media bias when they omitted reports Pierson was outspoken about holding communist beliefs and instead, chose to throw in an unsubstantiated report that he frequently attended Bible study with his family.

David Mecham of KTLA-TV in Los Angeles states on the video that neighbors in suburban Denver described Karl Pierson as “a nice young man whose family attended Bible study meetings.” He also reported that people described Pierson as “smart, likable, and a member of the track and debate club.”

The totality of reports and interviews with neighbors or classmates paints a very different picture than the one painted by David Mecham at KTLA-TV. While the KTLA-TV report interviews one girl who supports the narrative, calling Pierson “sweet,” thus far the characterizations of Pierson from others have depicted him as somewhat of a socialist agitator who wasn’t persecuted for his beliefs, at all.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Davis said Pierson once wore a shirt that read the letters U.S.S.R., but no one sent him home for the shirt, which by the way, would’ve been done had he been wearing a shirt depicting Jesus. As far as anyone knows, no one mocked Pierson for his communist beliefs.

“He would speak for himself. He would not be afraid to tell someone how he feels,” Zach Runberg, 18 and a fellow senior who had an English class with Pierson, told ABC News. “People would talk to him, nice conversations,” Runberg said.

Karl Pierson on left; debate team coach Tracy Murphy on right. (Credit: KTLA-TV)

So if, as David Mecham at KTLA-TV said, Pierson was “a nice young man” who “routinely won contests” in the debate club, why was he thrown off the team and why did he decide to take revenge and kill the debate coach?

ABC News also reported that he had previously been disciplined in September for inappropriately expressing disagreement, as a result of his “strong political views.” but was not kicked off of the debate team at that time. The school did threaten further discipline if the incident was repeated.

Perhaps, the incident was repeated, forcing the debate coach to make good on the school’s promise.

Challon Winer, who lives across the street from Pierson’s home, said he often would see the teen mowing the lawn or shoveling snow from the driveway.

“I noticed that he didn’t look extremely happy, but he was a teenager,” subject to the normal moods of that age group. Funny how the media takes a neighbor’s statement and runs with it as if he is a board certified psychiatrist, isn’t it?

Steve Miles, an English teacher who taught Pierson as a freshman, says the school librarian who ran the speech team cut Pierson from the team, but he didn’t know why.

Mecham misleadingly used the term “family” when reporting Pierson’s attendance at Bible study, but the shooters parents were divorced. Maybe, just maybe, Pierson wasn’t keen on people disagreeing with him on his views, and was just like the other 84 percent of all children from divorced parents, angry.

Unfortunately, the liberal media never wants to talk about issues of the family, because of the family-destroying liberal policies they support, opting instead to mock families who find faith to be an effective weapon against societal irregularities and a stabilizing influence on mental health.

Guess it was the evil gun or the Bible that talked him into getting revenge on a teacher or students who persecuted Pierson, since as Mecham at KTLA-TV reported, he “routinely won contests” in the debate club.

Pierson lived at least part of the time with his mother in a well-off neighborhood in suburban Highlands Ranch, and not surprisingly, the sheriff said Pierson’s mother was out-of-town at the time of the shooting.

Yet issues of family are off-limits, and David Mecham and KTLA-TV sound suspiciously like collaborators in the renewed Obama administration push for stricter gun control laws coinciding with the 1-year anniversary of the Newtown shooting, which was recently detailed on PeoplesPunditDaily.com.

Media bias attacking the faithful is second nature for the liberal media, but the fact this was done during the Christmas season, is disgraceful.

KTLA-TV in Los Angeles topped Piers Morgan

People's Pundit Daily
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