On Saturday, July 19, Judge Jeanine rips Obama over his failed foreign policy, saying ” Americans want a president whose not afraid” to assert American power.
On Saturday, July 19, Judge Jeanine rips
July 19, 2014: Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 near the village of Hrabove, eastern Ukraine. (Photo: AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
The black boxes for the downed Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 have been found and will be handed over to the International Civil Aviation Organization, Alexander Borodai, a pro-Russia separatists leader said Sunday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed Saturday in a phone call that an independent commission led by the International Civil Aviation Organization should be granted swift access to the crash site.
The announcement follows tragic news from international investigators and Ukrainian officials, who said rebels forced emergency services to surrender the bodies of 196 victims of the plane crash. The victims’ bodies were loaded onto refrigerated trains headed for a rebel-held city.
Borodai said the bodies would remain in refrigerated containers at a train station in the town of Torez until the arrival of an international aviation delegation. International outrage over how the bodies of plane crash victims were being handled is growing, and officials fear that the rebels in control of the territory where the plane came down could be tampering with the evidence.
The Ukraine in Kiev and the Russian separatists both accuse each other of firing a surface-to-air missile Thursday. striking Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it flew from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur at an altitude of 33,000 feet. All those onboard the flight above the battlefields of eastern Ukraine — 283 passengers and 15 crew — were killed.
While both also deny shooting down the plane, the SBU, Ukraine’s security agency released audiotapes of intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence officers and Russian separatists. The taped conversation includes the moment the rebels come to understand the plane they shot down was not a Ukraine warplane, but rather a civilian passenger plane. U.S. defense officials told PPD Friday they have no reason to believe the audio tapes are not valid.
Further strengthening the case against Russia and the Spetzna-backed separatists, an Associated Press journalist saw a Buk missile launcher in rebel-held territory close to the crash site Thursday only hours before the plane was brought down. Also, two other Ukrainian planes were brought down by the same missile system over the past 10 days, which the rebels gleefully took credit for afterward.
Ukraine, Great Britain and the U.S. say Russia has been sending sophisticated arms to the rebels, which of course, Moscow denied.
In a scathing op-ed published in the Sunday Times, British Prime Minister David Cameron said the attack was a “direct result of Russia destabilizing a sovereign state, violating its territorial integrity, backing thuggish militias and training and arming them.”
“We must turn this moment of outrage into a moment of action,” he wrote.
In what was clearly a reference to Merkel, as well as and other European leaders who have blocked efforts to impose tougher sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Cameron said Europe must now “respond robustly.”
Merkel, or Germany in particular, is looking out for their own energy interests, as the neighboring nation fulfills the vast amount of their energy needs through Russian resources.
“For too long, there has been a reluctance on the part of too many European countries to face up to the implications of what is happening in eastern Ukraine,” Cameron wrote.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Emergency Ministry spokeswoman Nataliya Bystro said workers at the crash site were forced to hand over the 196 bodies they had recovered to the armed rebels.
“Where they took the bodies — we don’t know,” Bystro told the AP. She also said they had no information about the other 102 victims’ bodies, and Michael Bociurkiw, a spokesman for monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said it is likely that some bodies were incinerated from the tragic event.
Alexander Pilyushny, an emergency worker combing the crash site for body parts Sunday morning, told the AP it took the rebels several hours Saturday to cart away the bodies. He said he and other workers had no choice but to hand over the bodies.
“They are armed and we are not,” Pilyushny said.
The black boxes for the downed Malaysia
U.S. Border Patrol agents on the American side of the Rio Grande were taking heavy fire from .50-caliber weapons Friday night when cartels fired at them from the Mexican side of the river, sources told FoxNews.com.
The weapons were fired at the U.S. side of the riverbank in and around the area of the Rincon Peninsula across the Rio Grande from Reynosa, Mexico, at about 8:30 p.m. Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert told FoxNews.com that bullets ricocheted into an area where Border Patrol agents were positioned.
Fox News says sources in the Border Patrol confirmed Gohmert’s story and the use of .50-caliber weapons.
“We don’t have any armor that can stop a .50-caliber round, so our Border Patrol agents had to take cover when the rounds were richocheting around them,” said Gohmert, who has taken a hands-on approach over the last week to the border crisis.
“When the shooting stopped, about 40 to 50 people came out on the U.S. side and turned themselves in. So clearly the rounds were being fired to suppress every effort to stop anybody intervening with anyone or anything coming across,” Gohmert added. “We have no idea what or how many or whom came across with the other illegal immigrants.”
While the dangerous encounter represents the latest instance, it isn’t the first time Mexican drug cartels have been responsible for violent clashes with U.S. Border Patrol agents.
In a letter obtained by Breitbart News, Gil Kerlikowske, the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, told California Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter that a total of 300 unauthorized incursions have occurred since January 1, 2004. Of those, there were 152 incidents that involved a total of at least 525 armed subjects.
“Of the 152 incidents involving armed subjects, verbal or physical contact was made with the armed subjects in 81 incidents (approximately 322 armed subjects in total),” he wrote, noting that an encounter with the Mexican military or Mexican law enforcement does not always mean a stand off or confrontation. Of the 81 armed encounters, he wrote, 131 subjects were detained.
Border Patrol sources told Fox News that the rounds were easily identifiable as .50- caliber weapons, because of the unique, distinctive noise they make when fired.
“I don’t know why we’re out here like sitting ducks,” one Border Patrol source said. “We need help.”
Border Patrol officials have yet to make themselves available for a comment.
The Rio Grande sector is the part of the 2,000-mile border with Texas that has taken the brunt of traffic from illegal immigrants seeking amnesty in recent months. The migrants, many from Central America, are pouring across the U.S. border due to the president’s failure to enforce immigration law and 2012 executive orders softening U.S. policy. They mistakenly believe the president’s actions allow for them to remain in America once they make it in and, in practice, as of now the law basically does.
The National Association of Former Border Patrol Officers called the border crisis an “orchestrated and contrived assault” by a government with an agenda, and one that is putting the American people at risk. Border Patrol officials have warned that the border is now largely unattended, and vulnerable to cartel and terrorist infiltration.
Often, violence on the border with Mexican drug cartels and corrupt Mexican officials doesn’t end at the border. A few years ago police in Phoenix, Arizona, reported that three members of Mexico’s army conducted a violent home invasion resulting in the assassination of one person and a neighborhood terrorized with gunfire.
The corrupt Mexican military officers were hired by one of that country’s renowned drug cartels to carry out the deadly operation, Phoenix police officials told Judicial Watch. Phoenix police confirmed the soldiers were armed with AR-15 assault rifles and dressed in military tactical gear.
An official police memorandum describes it as a “drug rip,” a tactical assault in which approximately 100 rounds were fired.
Tucson based KVOA reported on the alarming events earlier this year. Now, not only are Mexican Army soldiers firing on American citizens, they are also challenging federal agents and border patrol.
In January, 2014, soldiers from the Mexican Army drew their guns on U.S. Border Patrol agents just 50 yards into the United States. In March, they opened fire on Javier Jose Rodriguez, a young Tucson man visiting family in Sásabe when he was driving around the town early on a Saturday morning. Rodriguez was shot in the arm and in the side, he spent three weeks at University of Arizona Medical Center.
Below, Robert Ayers, a resident of Arivaca, describes the frightening experience that he had with Mexican soldiers who appeared late one night, landing in a helicopter behind his barn. Ayers said several men emerged from the helicopter in military fashion. The men were in full body armor, wearing masks over their faces and carried what appeared to be fully automatic weapons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdbDDfTutZQ
U.S. Border Patrol agents on the American
Feb. 4, 2006: Actor James Garner poses in the photo room at the 2006 Writers Guild Awards in Hollywood, California. (Reuters)
Actor James Garner, whose big break came from the 1950s TV Western “Maverick,” is dead at age 86. Garner built a successful career in both TV and films, including a role in “The Rockford Files” and his Oscar-nominated “Murphy’s Romance.”
He was found dead of natural causes at his home in the Brentwood area of Los Angeles Saturday evening after police responded to a call at around 8 p.m. PDT, Los Angeles police officer Alonzo Iniquez said early Sunday. LAPD confirmed Garner’s identity from family members, Iniquez told The Associated Press. Garner had suffered a stroke in May 2008, just weeks after his 80th birthday.
Garner was best known for his low-key, wise-cracking style, specifically beginning with his hit TV series, “Maverick” and “The Rockford Files.”
His quick-witted avoidance of conflict provided a refreshingly new take on the American hero, contrasting with the steely heroics of John Wayne and the fast trigger of Clint Eastwood.
A native Oklahoman, Garner remained active in both TV and film well into his 70s. In 2002, he played Sandra Bullock’s father in the film “Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood.” The following year, he joined the cast of “8 Simple Rules … For Dating My Teenage Daughter,” playing the role of grandfather on the sitcom after star John Ritter, who played the father, died during the show’s second season.
Garner also appeared in the 2004 American romantic drama film “The Notebook” directed by Nick Cassavetes, which based on the novel of the same name by Nicholas Sparks. The film starred Ryan Gosling and Rachel McAdams, who play a younger version of him and Gena Rowlands, in a love story that takes place over the course of the 20th cetury.
When he received the Screen Actors Guild’s lifetime achievement award in 2005, he quipped, “I’m not at all sure how I got here.”
In his 2011 memoir, “The Garner Files,” he provided some insight to the man, including his propensity to bluntly expressed his opinions and decking people who said something nasty to his face. An obnoxious fan and an abusive stepmother found that out the hard way. They all deserved it, Garner writes in his book.
In 1957, the ABC network was desperate to compete on ratings-rich Sunday night, so they scheduled “Maverick” against CBS’s giant “The Ed Sullivan Show” and NBC’s “The Steve Allen Show.” “Maverick” would quickly top them both.
Maverick, the character, was fresh to be sure. Networks were crowded with hard-eyed, traditional American Western heroes until Bret Maverick provided another kind of hero. With his sardonic tone and his eagerness to talk his way out of a squabble rather than pull out his six-shooter, the con-artist Westerner seemed to scoff at the genre’s values.
After a couple of years, Garner felt the series was losing its creative edge, and he found a legal loophole to escape his contract in 1960.
His first film after “Maverick” established him as a movie actor. It was “The Children’s Hour,” William Wyler’s remake of Lillian Hellman’s lesbian drama that co-starred Audrey Hepburn and Shirley MacLaine.
He would go on to do many, many more films so his diversity and depth as an actor. He even returned several times to TV, unlike other actors who got their start in television only to remain on the big screen.
Garner was born James Scott Bumgarner (some references say Baumgarner) in Norman, Okla. His mother died when he was 5, and friends and relatives cared for him and his two brothers for a time while his father was to California.
In 1957, Garner married TV actress Lois Clarke, and the union prevailed despite some stormy patches. She had a daughter Kimberly from a previous marriage, and the Garners had another daughter, Gretta Scott. In the late 1990s, the Garners built a 12,000-square-foot house on a 400-acre ranch north of Santa Barbara.
“My wife and I felt … we’d just watch the sunset from the front porch,” Garner said in 2000. “But then the phone started ringing with all these wonderful offers, and we decided, `Heck, let’s stay in the business for a while.”‘
Actor James Garner, whose big break came
Protesters turn back three buses carrying 140 immigrants as they attempt to enter the Murrieta U.S. Border Patrol station for processing on Tuesday, July 1, 2014, in Murrieta, Calif.(AP Photo/The Press-Enterprise, David Bauman)
There will be hundreds of protests taking place all across the United States this weekend opposing the surge of illegal immigrants causing the border crisis, and proposed immigration reform that organizers say amounts to amnesty to those breaking the law.
The weekend “National Days of Protest against Immigration Reform Amnesty & The illegal Immigration Surge” protests are scheduled to take place through Sunday.
Organizers for the events, as well as from Overpasses for America and Make Them Listen, say at least 321 protests will take place over the next two days, from state capitals to highway overpasses to Mexican consulates.
The protests are in response to thousands of Central American immigrants seeking amnesty, not fleeing from violence, entering the United States en masse illegally over recent weeks and months.
“We know that 12,000 people expected to attend nearly 300 events shows illegal immigration is the most important problem facing America,” said William Gheen, president of Americans for Legal Immigration PAC.
Many of the Central Americans who have illegally entered the U.S. since the spring are being housed in federal facilities across the country at taxpayers’ expense, and also being dumped into various cities across the U.S. The protests are meant to call attention to the broken immigration system and both President Obama’s blatant invitation to illegally cross the border and his unwillingness to enforce immigration law.
Gheen noted a June 20 Gallup poll that shows 65 percent of Americans disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the country’s immigration issues.
“More people are learning that Obama is smuggler in chief,” Gheen said, referring to the president’s 2012 executive memo that relaxed deportations for many illegal immigrants. “It’s welcome mat that is a complete breech of existing law.”
A recent Gallup poll prior to the border crisis headlines also found most Americans aren’t exactly keen on legal immigration, let alone illegal immigration. “In fact, more Americans think immigration should be decreased than increased, and by a nearly two-to-one margin, 41 percent vs. 22 percent,” said Lydia Saad of Gallup.
Similarly, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey found that 59 percent of likely voters believe the primary focus of any new immigration legislation passed by Congress should be to send the young illegal immigrants back home as quickly as possible. In the survey, just 27 percent said it should focus instead on making it easier for these illegal immigrants to remain in the United States.
This weekend’s protests follow individual protests in cities and states across the country — including the most notable in Murrieta, California, where busloads of illegal immigrants were turned away by protestors. Protests also transpired in Westminster, Maryland, by residents opposed to illegal border-crossers being temporarily housed in facilities in their neighborhoods.
And they are working.
Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who just last week criticized efforts to deport these illegal immigrants, is now the latest governor to tell the White House not to house any of them in his state. The governor’s decision was directly related to the protest that took place earlier this week, which was successful at protesting against a Health and Human Services Department plan to house illegal immigrant children in an Army Reserve center.
According to Rasmussen, a whopping 57 percent of likely voters disapprove of housing these illegal immigrants in their state, while half as many (29 percent) approve and 14 percent are undecided.
There will be hundreds of protests taking
The PPD Colorado Senate race prediction moves to “Toss-Up” as Rep. Cory Gardner (left) proves to be a challenging roadblock for vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall (right).
The Colorado Senate race is unrecognizable from the one described in a May, 2013, National Journal article entitled, “Colorado’s Forgotten Senate Race.” PPD’s election projection model has warranted two rating changes since the entrance of Rep. Cory Gardner in February, both of which clearly show this race slipping away from incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall.
In February, after Ken Buck made the decision to drop out of the race to make way for Gardner, a far more electable rising star in the GOP, we changed our Colorado Senate race rating from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.” Now, after adjusting the variables used in our 2014 Senate Map Predictions model to reflect recent developments, we are once again changing the rating for this race.
“The incompetence of the Obama administration, the incompetence of Harry Reid’s leadership in the Senate has worn thin on the American people,” said Rob Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “So we just need to provide an alternative that says we can grow our economy, we can create more jobs, we can tackle this debt and we can fix ObamaCare.”
He has a valid point, according to recent surveys. But before we get to the recent polling, per se, let’s provide some data for context.
First, in Gallup’s annual party ID by-state survey, Colorado voters expressed a modest but notable shift in party preference toward the Republican Party. In an election likely to be decided on voter turnout, a few points in either direction can make all of the difference. When we look into the latest voter registration numbers and compare them to past election results, we can conclude Gallup correctly predicted this shift.
Since the 2012 presidential election, Democrats have added 28,008 voters to their voter registration roles, which totaled 915,475 voters as of July 1, up from 887,470 in 2012. Meanwhile, Republican have added 40,074 voters to their roles for a total of 965,859 voters as of July 1, up from 925,785 in 2012.
Now, you may have noticed that Colorado Republicans outnumbered Democrats in 2012, yet Barack Obama still defeated Mitt Romney in the Centennial State 51.49 – 46.13 percent. That’s simply because the state of Colorado has a massive number of independent voters — 900,490 in 2012, and 993,652 as of July 1, to be exact — and they broke for Obama by a 54 – 45 percent margin even as independents nationwide went for Romney.
However, unfortunately for Udall, based on the polling data available, independent voters are going for the incumbent by an average of roughly 2 points, if we round up. In the latest survey, which was conducted by Quinnipiac University, independents are going 43 – 40 percent for Udall.
Worth mentioning, the NBC/Marist poll dubiously offered no cross tabs for scrutiny or explanation of their methodology. The poll is a clear outlier, and a perfect example of why PPD rates pollsters based on past accuracy and weighs them accordingly when the polling variable is calculated in our 2014 Senate Map Predictions model.
While we provide the raw polling average below, which is currently Udall +1.0, the adjusted PPD average used in our model is Gardner +1.0, or 44.3 – 43.3 percent. Marist, who polled the state for NBC News, was off by more than 7 points in polled races in 2012, including an even worse result in Florida.
Colorado voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing by an average 53.3 – 40.1 percent, while Udall gets a negative 42 – 46 percent job approval rating, his lowest net approval ever measured. This is actually worse than it sounds because, as the NRSC is quick to note, and correctly so, Senator Udall has already spent roughly $7,000,000 out of his $13,000,000 war chest, mostly on attack ads aiming to define Gardner early.
Yet, despite these efforts, the latest survey conducted by Quinnipiac found Udall in the most vulnerable position he has been since the cycle began. Quinnipiac, consequently, has a fairly stellar rating compared to the other pollsters in this race. They have been within the margin of error nearly 80 percent of the time, including data from the 2012 election cycle to the present. So, considering they haven’t yet moved to their likely voter model, which will no doubt benefit Gardner further, anyway you slice it the results are bad for Udall.
Colorado voters say Gardner is more aligned with the state’s ideology, as 40 percent say Udall is too liberal compared to 32 percent who say Gardner is too conservative. Voters say 49 – 40 percent that Udall does not deserve to be reelected, tying his lowest score ever measured. Predictably, Udall fairs better than Gardner on abortion and the minimum wage, by small 43 – 37 percent and 39 – 38 percent margins, respectively. But, that’s it.
When a Democratic candidate loses on questions that are traditional Democratic platform issues, they simply cannot win.
Voters by a 44 – 39 percent margin say that Gardner “would be better helping the middle class,” while they are split 44 – 44 percent on whether Udall “cares about their needs and problems.” That’s juxtaposed to 42 – 33 percent who say Gardner does.
Even though I find these little data points entertaining, the truth is they don’t weigh too much on our model, which focuses on fundamentals, i.e. approval rating (Obama’s and Udall’s), the economy, etc. The D+1 Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, was forecast prior to events that have made the national political environment so favorable to Republicans, and one could argue that it is outdated. But even if it was updated to better reflect voter registration and party preference trends, Gardner would only benefit marginally in our model. PVI is not an actual indicator of margins, but it can help to predict statistical probabilities of election outcomes.
For reference, in 2010, Republican candidates had an 83 percent chance of victory in states where the PVI was D+2 or more Republican. The candidate recruitment variable (think Ken Buck’s foot-in-mouth disease) helps to gauge how much of an impact PVI will have, which is why Udall is in so much trouble.
Rep. Cory Gardner is a top-tier candidate and, as we predicted in February, is clearly capable at answering typically damaging attacks from Democrats on social issues.
On our election projection model, a likelihood from 45 – 55 percent is assigned a “Toss-Up” rating; 56 to 64 percent is assigned a “Leans” ratings; 65 to 84 percent is assigned a “Likely” rating; 85 to 100 percent is assigned a “Safe” rating.
As of now, Cory Gardner has a 53 percent chance of defeating Mark Udall by a 3 – 5 percent margin if the election were held today. Obviously, that classifies the race as a “Toss-Up,” but the Colorado Senate race is one of the closest “Toss-Up” races as far as probability on our 2014 Senate Map Predictions model. If we move the model to a 1 – 3 percent margin scenario, Gardner’s chance of victory rises to 62 percent, a “Leans Republican” scenario. However, the smaller the margin of victory the larger the margin of error, hence the borderline “Toss-Up.”
That’s really quite a stunning change and a testament to Gardner’s strength as a candidate. The Colorado Senate race went from a “Forgotten Senate Race,” to a contest that perhaps could decide control of the U.S. Senate.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Udall (D) | Gardner (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 6/5 – 7/14 | — | — | 44.5 | 43.5 | Udall +1.0 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/10 – 7/14 | 1147 RV | 2.9 | 42 | 44 | Gardner +2 |
| NBC News/Marist | 7/7 – 7/10 | 914 RV | 3.2 | 48 | 41 | Udall +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/25 – 6/26 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 42 | Udall +1 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 6/5 – 6/8 | 747 LV | 3.5 | 45 | 47 | Gardner +2 |
PPD's election projection model clearly shows the
Shoppers look over the offerings at the new Trader Joe’s store in Boulder, Colorado February 14, 2014.
(Photo: REUTERS/RICK WILKING)
A reading on US consumer sentiment from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan fell to 81.3 in early July from 82.5 the month prior. Wall Street expected the gauge to rise to 83, and expectations weakened for a third straight month.
“The most remarkable aspect of recent trends in consumer confidence has been its resistance to change in either direction due to very negative GDP nor very positive employment gains,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.
“This stability will provide the necessary strength for consumer spending to continue to expand, but does not support an acceleration in spending above 2.5 percent.”
The measurement that serves as a barometer of current economic conditions increased to 97.1 from 96.6, topping a forecast of 97.0. However, the survey’s gauge of consumer expectations slipped for a third straight month, to 71.1 from 73.5. The subindex was below an expected 74.0.
The survey’s one-year inflation expectation increased to 3.3 percent, up from 3.1 percent in June, while the survey’s five-to-10-year inflation outlook actually fell to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent.
Curtin said long-term inflation expectations had only been lower once in the past 25 years, in 2009, when expectations were for 2.5 percent.
“Indeed, 2.6 percent was only recorded twice before at the depth of the Great Recession,” he said. “While at the bottom of the range it has traveled in the past decade, it gave no indication of a trend toward deflation.”
A reading on US consumer sentiment from
Democratic Rep. Gary Peters (left), Republican Sec. of State Terri Land (right). (Photo: AP)
The dynamics of the Michigan Senate race have changed dramatically over the past few months, and the latest polling is beginning to reflect that reality. Republican Secretary of State and U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land has seen her lead over Democratic Rep. Gary Peters deteriorate.
Republicans have won just 1 of the past 12 Senate races in Michigan, but that 1994 win was also the last time the Michigan Senate race was an open seat contest, and the national political environment is more than favorable enough for the Republican Party to flip this seat.
When we first analyzed this race, we noted that Land’s 2.5-percent lead in the PPD average of polls (below) was just inside the margin of error, but relatively solid and consistent. Peters enjoyed a bump from temporary damage done by the partial government shutdown, which evaporated shortly after, and there seemed to be a legitimate rightward shift similar to the shift that transpired in 2010. Polling conducted even prior to the ObamaCare rollout disaster showed either a very, very close race, or one leaning toward Land.
Gallup’s annual party ID by-state survey showed a clear move toward the Republican Party, and other polling more than suggested Michiganders were beginning to recognize the failed leadership from Democrat dominance in Detroit. Gov. Rick Snyder’s response to the crisis was widely approved of by Michigan voters, and the entire debacle posed an enormous opportunity for credible Republican candidates. Up until April, polling was in line with other variables in the PPD 2014 Senate Map Predictions model.
But Land has made a big mistake. Land has chosen to lay low in a Blue-leaning state rather than hammer Peters on ObamaCare and, a far more powerful issue in the state, the Detroit bankruptcy. When now-Gov. Rick Snyder defeated Democrat Virg Bernero in 2010 by a blow-out 19-point margin, which helped Republicans build historically large majorities in the state legislature, Snyder was not only aggressively campaigning, but he campaigned aggressively against one-party, Democratic dominance.
And that was when Detroit going bankrupt was still just a theoretical prediction. Now, it’s a reality, and voters were and remain outraged. But Land’s lay-low campaign strategy has prohibited her from harnessing that outrage, and it has been a big mistake, allowing Peters to avoid the big issues and instead distract voters with the trivial.
Which brings me to my next point.
Another colossal mistake by the Land campaign was releasing that God-awful ad, “Really?”, which was a response to Gary Peters falling in line with all the vulnerable Democrats this cycle. In a terrible effort to highlight just how ridiculous a narrative it is for a male candidate to attack a woman for waging a “war on women,” the Land campaign managed to craft an ad pollster-slash-focus group guru Frank Luntz said was the worst spot so far during the 2014 campaign cycle.
Luntz said the ad failed to “give any message” or “communicate any sense of substance,” and I couldn’t agree more with Frank’s assessment.
“I’m going to upset the candidate, who’s going to see it. But this is the worst ad of the political process,” Luntz said.
In the ad, Land says Peters and his “buddies” claim she’s “waging a war on women.” “Really?” Land asks. “Think about that for a second.” Terrible elevator-like music plays as she proceeds to sip from her coffee cup for a whopping 13 seconds before finally saying that as a woman she “might know a little bit more about women than Gary Peters.”
Neither Luntz nor I have ever seen dials in a focus group go so low. Michiganders have a habit of writing off candidates they feel have wasted their time or insulted their intelligence with poorly thought-through political ads (think the 20-point loss by Pete Hoekstra and his “Debbie Spend-It-Now” ad in 2012).
Terri Lynn Land was and still is a credible candidate who can realistically defeat the very bland Rep. Gary Peters, who has an albatross hanging around his neck because he actually represented the Detroit suburbs before winning a competitive primary for a majority African-American district. But taking the same sit-back, wait-and-see strategy that native-born Mitt Romney took in 2012 will not work. She must get out to the voters on a personal level with a message of substance that offers a real alternative.
I would further suggest that she also take that message to voters outside of the reliably Republican counties in northern Michigan, because it won’t be enough to win. Here’s a little hint for her pollster: That’s why she can’t get above 46-47 percent in the polls, just in case you’re stumped.
In fact, Detroit would be a good place to start since Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has already broken the ice for Republican candidates in the inner city. Republican candidates are making a big mistake if they think they should write off black voters in urban areas that no longer have police services to protect their families, and even have to cut public grass themselves. While it may seem to defy conventional political wisdom, I submit these rich, D.C.-based Republican consultants who have never stepped foot inside these city neighborhoods aren’t wise to voters, black or white, at all.
So, that’s enough free advise for the Land camp. Until we see something concrete, we are moving this race back to “Leans Democrat” from the previous “Toss-Up” rating on our 2014 Senate Map.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Peters (D) | Land (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 6/26 – 7/15 | — | — | 42.3 | 36.5 | Peters +5.8 |
| EPIC-MRA | 7/12 – 7/15 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 36 | Peters +9 |
| Vanguard/Denno Research (D) | 7/9 – 7/11 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 37 | Peters +3 |
| NBC News/Marist | 7/7 – 7/10 | 870 RV | 3.3 | 43 | 37 | Peters +6 |
| PPP (D) | 6/26 – 6/29 | 578 RV | 4.1 | 41 | 36 | Peters +5 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 6/5 – 6/8 | 753 LV | 3.6 | 50 | 41 | Peters +9 |
| Mitchell Research | 6/6 – 6/6 | 961 LV | 3.2 | 45 | 42 | Peters +3 |
| Detroit News | 5/20 – 5/22 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 35 | Peters +5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 5/17 – 5/20 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 38 | Peters +6 |
| CEA/Hickman Analytics (D) | 4/24 – 4/30 | 502 LV | 4.4 | 42 | 37 | Peters +5 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 4/14 – 4/15 | 875 LV | 3.3 | 46 | 41 | Peters +5 |
| Mitchell Research | 4/9 – 4/9 | 1460 LV | 2.6 | 38 | 44 | Land +6 |
| PPP (D) | 4/3 – 4/6 | 825 RV | 3.4 | 41 | 36 | Peters +5 |
| MRG (R) | 3/24 – 3/28 | 600 LV | 4.1 | 38 | 40 | Land +2 |
| LE&A/Denno Research (D) | 3/9 – 3/10 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 37 | Peters +3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2/5 – 2/11 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 38 | 41 | Land +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/14 – 1/15 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 35 | 37 | Land +2 |
| Harper (R) | 1/7 – 1/8 | 1004 LV | 3.1 | 36 | 44 | Land +8 |
| PPP (D) | 12/5 – 12/8 | 1034 RV | 3.0 | 40 | 42 | Land +2 |
| LE&A/Denno Research (D) | 11/12 – 11/14 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 37 | 36 | Peters +1 |
| Inside Michigan Politics | 10/29 – 10/29 | 794 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 38 | Peters +5 |
The dynamics of the Michigan Senate race
On September 01, 1983 the former Soviet Union committed an unthinkable act — it shot down a loaded passenger jet over contested territory in the Sea of Japan. It was a barbaric act perpetrated by an aggressive nation determined to send a message about its sovereignty to the world.
Yesterday, Malaysian Airlines MH17 was relegated to the same history as Korean Air Lines Flight 007, as it too was shot down for the same reasons and arguably by the same nation.
While there has been no official proof of the perpetrator of this action (listen to SBU intercepted tapes), there can be no doubt that whoever committed this dastardly act had sophisticated technology enough to bring the jet down and, more importantly, knew the civilian nature of their target.
At the time of KAL flight in 1983, Ronald Reagan immediately issued a statement about the Soviet Union, with George Schultz making a presentation of evidence within HOURS of the attack. Reagan addressed the nation (viewable below) 3 days later about the sequence of events of the shoot down. He presented concrete evidence of the Soviet Union’s actions as well as the accusations of a cover-up and interference with the investigation who denied the attack, much as they are today.
After presenting his case to the world with all the expertise of a prosecuting attorney, providing charts and intercepted communications, he called the act a “crime against humanity [that] must never be forgotten.” This was followed by civilian and military sanctions against the former Soviet Union that were severe and injurious to the nation. This was followed by a similar presentation to the UN General Assembly several days later.
Reagan’s actions galvanized the world against the former Soviet Union and have been credited by many as a contributing factor in the countries eventual breakup. He acted as a leader to unify the world against an “evil empire,” which for years had acted with disregard to human rights and safety, much as they do today.
President Obama also issued a statement about this country in regards to the Malaysian airline disaster, and probable shoot down by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
He said, and I quote:
“It looks like it may be a terrible tragedy.”
Then he told some jokes.
Obama also said the White House’s “first priority” would be determining whether any U.S. citizens were on board. A whole 40 seconds of mention. Meanwhile, Putin is actually blaming the West, saying that “This tragedy would not have happened if there were peace on this land, if the military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine.”
Apparently, the 200 plus others that were murdered just didn’t matter to our President.
My, how times have changed.
Thomas Purcell is host of the Liberty Never Sleeps podcast show and more of his work can be read at libertyneversleeps.com.
Yesterday, Malaysian Airlines MH17 was relegated to
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Three audio tapes released by SBU, Ukraine’s security agency, reportedly are the intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence officers and Russian separatists. The taped conversation includes the moment the rebels come to understand the plane they shot down was not a Ukraine warplane, but a civilian passenger plane. It could be the evidence that proves Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in Ukraine by Russia separatists.
The and transcript — viewable below along with a video — was published in the Kiev Post.
“We have just shot down a plane,” says a man the SBU identified as Igor Bezler, a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
That call transpired just 20 minutes after the plane went down and was to a person the Ukraine’s SBU says is a colonel in the main intelligence department of the general headquarters of the armed forces of the Russian Federation Vasili Geranin. If so, Ukraine hopes Russian President Vladimir Putin will be forced to stop the charade at the emergency United Nations Security Council meeting Friday.
But in a second tape released by the agency, two men identified as “The Greek” and “Major” discuss the debris field and the fact the the plane was a civilian aircraft.
“It’s 100 percent a passenger [civilian] aircraft,” Major is recorded as saying. He admitted to seeing no weapons at the site. “Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.”
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was a Boeing 777 that was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down by what U.S. intelligence sources have confirmed was a Russian-made surface-to-air missile near the village of Chornukhine, Luhansk Oblast, which is located roughly 30 miles from Ukraine’s border with Russia.
The second conversation, which has not been verified as authentic by U.S. intel, or at least not so far as they have admit, will put an end to the Russian claims that it was the Ukrainian military that shot the plane down.
According to the transpcript:
Major: “These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.”
Grek: “Yes, Major.”
Major: “The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first ‘200’ [code word for dead person]. We have found the first ‘200.’ A Civilian.”
Greek: “Well, what do you have there?”
Major: “In short, it was 100 percent a passenger [civilian] aircraft.”
Greek: “Are many people there?”
Major: “Holy [expletive]! The debris fell right into the yards [of homes].”
In the third and final intercepted conversation released by the SBU — which the agency says took place about 40 minutes after the Russian separatists learn they shot down a civilian airliner — Cossack commander Nikolay Kozitsin tells an unidentified separatist member that the fact the Malaysia Airlines plane was flying over the combat zone likely meant it was carrying spies.
“That means they were carrying spies,” Kozitsin allegedly says. “They shouldn’t be [expletive] flying. There is a war going on.”
The attack on Thursday afternoon killed 298 people from nearly a dozen nations, including vacationers, students and a large contingent of scientists heading to an AIDS conference. At least 181 bodies had been located as of yesterday, emergency workers said. The Ukraine government in Kiev, the separatist pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and the Russia government supporting the rebels all deny shooting the passenger plane down. Despite the overwhelming evidence, Putin and other officials in Moscow and the Kremlin deny backing the rebels.
Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for the downing, saying it was responsible for the unrest in its Russian-speaking eastern regions — but curiously did not actually accuse Ukraine of shooting the plane down. Putin also avoided the question of whether Russia gave the rebels the surface-to-air missile systems.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk described the downing as an “international crime” whose perpetrators would have to be punished in an international tribunal.
Read the full transcript of the intercepted phone call below:
Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).
Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?
IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.
VG: How many minutes ago?
IB: About 30 minutes ago.
SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.
“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
“Grek”: Yes, Major.
“Major”: The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.
“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?
“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.
“Greek”: Are many people there?
“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?
“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?
“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
“Greek”: Are there documents?
“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.
Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.
They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?
Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on.
WARNING: Audio tapes released by SBU, Ukraine's
