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Elections

illinois governor race

The Illinois Governor race is the second article in what will be a succession offering expanded analysis for the PPD 2014 Governor Map Predictions. A deeply unpopular incumbent Democrat, Gov. Pat Quinn, will face Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, and it appears the Land of Lincoln will be far more competitive than it otherwise should be.

Obama’s former White House Chief of Staff, Bill Daley, had formed an exploratory committee for a gubernatorial run, but withdrew. Any situation where an incumbent governor is forced to fend off challenges against two big, major players from his own party has the potential to cause the party trouble. Lisa Madigan, who had the potential to lock this up for the Democrats, also decided against a run. President Obama’s home state will not exactly be prime Democrat territory as far as the gubernatorial race goes.

Democrat Tio Hardiman, a small name challenger and former director of CeaseFire, along with his running mate for lieutenant governor, Brunell Donald, filed a challenge to Quinn’s nominating petitions. The ticket was claiming the incumbent governor doesn’t have enough valid signatures to get on the ballot. To qualify for the ballot in Illinois, state law requires a gubernatorial candidate collect 5,000 signatures from registered voters.

It was clear early on that Democrats had good reason to doubt Pat Quinn could hold the Governor Mansion. An April 2013 poll from Crain’s/Ipsos showed Gov. Pat Quinn with an almost unheard of 18 percent approval rating. It appears a divisive Republican primary may be the only potential variable working for Quinn at this point.

As far as our primary prediction, we rated the Republican primary for Illinois governor “Likely Rauner” on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions, which you can view here. However, the primary election, which many thought would bruise Bruce Rauner, apparently hurt Quinn more.

Moving back to the general election, the Rauner ad buy was devastating to Gov. Pat Quinn, though his abysmal 18 percent approval rating has yet to be duplicated in recent polling. In a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken January 30th, Bruce Rauner, who many Democrats believed could be depicted as a corporatist, lead the governor 47-39. But all of the potential challengers led Gov. Quinn, as well.

A solid 59 percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Quinn’s job performance, while 29 percent approve of his job performance. Statewide, Quinn is trailing in every region save for the city of Chicago, where he leads by roughly 60-25 percent. However, his poor performance in the Cook County suburbs, if true, will cost him the election. In a region that has been trending Democrat over the past few cycles, the potential Republican candidates lead by an average of 6 points.

In the collar counties, where 62 percent disapprove of the governor, the Republican lead is literally double the lead in Cook County, averaging 12 points for the potential candidates over Quinn. In Downstate Illinois, where 73 percent disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, the lead is insurmountable if it holds, with all of the Republican candidates leading Quinn by a 30-point margin.

With a 56.76 percent approval rating among Democrats, which is translating into just 49 percent of his own party who feels he deserves to be reelected, Quinn is in a similar position as Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett.

It wouldn’t be impossible for the numbers to move or tighten, but the strategy coming from the Quinn camp makes this look even more bleak for the Democrats come 2014.

Gov. Pat Quinn recently told Lynne Sweet of Illinois’ preeminent political blog, Capitol Fax, that he “sees no need at this stage to put together a data-digital-social media-driven operation that is the hallmark of many campaigns because, he told me, he has an army of foot soldiers.”

“There is no substitute for folks who go door to door. We did our petition drive in 10 days, got 55,000 names to activate that,” Quinn said. In fact, as of December 11, Quinn still did not even hire a campaign manager. As far as his trouble with Hardiman and his challenge to Quinn being on the ballot, the governor’s people seem not at all concerned. “We are confident in the number and quality of the governor’s nomination petitions,” campaign spokeswoman Leslie Wertheimer said.

Republicans very well have a shot at winning this race, and though we could see this play out the same as other states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, we can say with a degree of certainty at the moment that Gov. Quinn is leaning toward losing the Illinois Governor race. Rarely does a governor with such an abysmal job approval and no campaign organization win reelection, and we aren’t the only ones to think so.

The Democratic Party is being split in Illinois, which is something the media doesn’t seem to have the will to cover. The fissure between the pro-union Democrats and the remaining working class blue-collar Democrats who are unaffiliated with the unions is causing Quinn to lose support among a traditional bloc of Democratic voters.

The fissure was further exposed, if not ripped open, when former Kennedy administration official and Democratic activist Newton Minow, as well as a dozen other Illinois Democrats, endorsed Bruce Rauner.

Despite the potential for controvery, this race is now rated “Leans Republican” on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions.

View Polling Below Or View Our 2014 Governor Map Predictions

Poll Date Sample Rauner (R) Quinn (D) Spread
PPD Average 1/30 – 03/22 — 45 37 Rauner +8
Gravis/Human Events 03/21 – 03/22 806 RV 43 35 Rauner +8
WeAskAmerica 01/30 – 01/30 1354 LV 47 39 Rauner +8
PPP (D) 11/22 – 11/25 557 RV 38 41 Quinn +3

The Illinois Governor race is the second

News, Politics

DOJ Obama Nominee

The Senate Judiciary gave the first okay to radical DOJ Obama nominee Debo Adegbile, an attorney who defended and fought to overturn the death sentence of convicted cop-killer Mumia Abu-Jamal.

In a 10-8 vote down party lines, the Democratic majority approved Debo Adegbile to lead the Civil Rights Division, and although the nomination now goes to the full Senate for final approval, the Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid has pulled the nuclear option, preventing any further recourse.

As acting director of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Debo Adegbile succeeded in getting convicted cop-killer and former Black Panther Mumia Abu-Jamal’s death sentence overturned. Abu-Jamal was convicted in the 1981 killing of 24-year old Philadelphia police officer Daniel Faulkner, but the radical DOJ Obama nominee Debo Adegbile

Democratic Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy, who outrageously said Adegbile has been unfairly, refused to allow the widow. The officer’s widow, Maureen Faulkner, wanted to testify on Thursday, but Sen. Leahy would not allow it.

“I am physically, emotionally and mentally distressed that I’m not able to be in that room,” Faulkner told FoxNews.com by phone on Wednesday. “This is personal to me.”

A Leahy spokeswoman told FoxNews.com that a hearing to consider Adegbile’s nomination was already held on Jan. 8, and lawmakers were allowed to ask questions on his background then. She reiterated that “it’s not the practice” of the committee to have outside witnesses.

doj obama nominee

Perhaps, Patrick Leahy didn’t want a widow’s statements to be heard all over the nightly news broadcasts, such as this one:

Mr. Adegbile holds Mumia Abu-Jamal, a remorseless unrepentant cop killer, in high esteem. We know this because attorneys working under Mr. Adgebile’s supervision have stood before public rallies held in support of my husband’s killer and openly professed that it was “an extreme honor” to represent the man who put a hollow based bullet into my husband’s brain as he lay on the ground, wounded, unarmed and defenseless.

Faulkner’s widow ended her letter with the following plea to put partisanship aside an honor the service and death of her late husband, who was so young at the time of his death:

Your decision means a lot to me personally. The thought that Mr. Adegbile would be rewarded, in part, for the work he did for my husband’s killer is revolting. Throughout my long ordeal I have frequently been labeled a racist by many who support my husband’s killer simply because he is black and I white. I have also been asked to throw my name, my voice and my support behind political candidates from both parties. In each case I have declined. I have always believed that my husband’s death and my quest for justice transcends politics and race. From my heart, I’m asking you to do the same thing. Set aside any partisan feelings you have and do the right thing today when you vote on Mr Adegbile’s confirmation. Please spare my family and me from further pain.

Unfortunately, the Democrats did no such thing, validating that the mainstream Democratic Party is now as extreme and radical as it has ever been. The National Fraternal Order of Police wrote and sent President Obama a letter condemning the radical appointment, stating it was a “slap in the face to all law enforcement officers.”

Among those Democratic senators who voted in favor of this radical DOJ Obama nominee, was California Democratic Sen. Diane Feinstein, who hypocritically pushed gun control bans throughout her entire career. Her vote demonstrates that the reduction and punishment of crime factors nowhere in her equation for pushing anti-Second Amendment proposals.

Also, the Minnesota Democratic Senator Al Franken, who beat incumbent Norm Coleman in 2008 after massive fraud, will have to answer for this vote during what is quickly becoming a more competitive race in 2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kt28jUVN9_k

The Senate Judiciary gave the first okay

News, Politics

In an attempt to hold the Senate, Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock on Friday appointed Democrat John Walsh to serve out the remainder of Sen. Max Baucus’ term. Perhaps seeing the handwriting on the wall, one of the prominent authors of ObamaCare Sen. Max Baucus, announced he would retire last year.

Brian Schweitzer passing on the Montana Senate race put the Senate seat Baucus occupied for more than three decades firmly in play. Lt. Gov. John Walsh has been the front-runner for the Democratic nomination in this year’s primary, but has received wide criticism for being cited in a 2010 inspector general’s report for using his guard position for personal gain.

“Harry Reid and President Obama have pulled all the strings they can to clear the way for their hand-picked, scandal-plagued choice, John Walsh,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee Press Secretary Brook Hougesen.

The race is rated “Likely Republican” on the People’s Pundit Daily’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, with Montana moving farther to the right over the last 4 years than many of the other states in which Senate seats currently held by Democrats, but in which Mitt Romney easily won in 2012.

Walsh and the Democratic Party are hoping that the appointment will give the party an advantage, the type that comes from incumbency. But we would liken the race and the tactic to one similarly used in New Jersey by Chris Christie. However, in that race the candidate himself did not seek reelection, nevertheless, because he likely could not win.

Between the scandal and the overall dynamics of the race, we will keep this ratings firmly where it was. View the Montana Senate race expanded analysis for the 2014 Senate Map.

 

In an attempt to hold the Senate,

Markets, News

unemployment-rate-falls

The U.S. economy added a measly 113,000 jobs in January, a small yet disappointing improvement from the month prior and not enough to improve the suffering labor market.

The headline unemployment rate was 6.6 percent, according to figures released by the U.S. Labor Department, down from 6.7 percent in the prior month. Economists had forecast the U.S. economy would add 185,000 jobs, still an insufficient number to improve the terribly sick labor market, and that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 6.7 percent.

Though the labor participation rate was 63 percent, which is a tick up from 62.8 perfect, the key gauge of the percentage of working-age Americans currently employed is driving the headline unemployment number down. There are simply too many Americans who have quit on the American dream to increase employment.

The weak December jobs report, which revealed the addition of an even worse 74,000 jobs, also well below forecasts, was blamed on severe weather throughout much of the U.S. The December figure was revised insignificantly higher to 75,000 in the report released today by the Labor Department, also missing economists’ expectations.

The Fed is unlikely to taper back too much of their bond-buying program on the heels of this report and the month prior, as well as several manufacturing data points, because the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in four years, but not for the right reasons.

Because thousands of people have been leaving the workforce each month reduces the number of people the government counts as unemployed, the unemployment rate falls.

In total, when factoring other economic data, the economy will likely grow at 2 percent or less moving on from here.

The U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in

Economy, Markets, News

CREDIT: Reuters

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in December as exports fell, which also suggests fourth-quarter growth estimates will be scaled back.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday the U.S. trade deficit increased 12 percent to $38.7 billion. November’s shortfall on the trade balance was revised to $34.6 billion from the previously reported $34.3 billion.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit widening to $36.0 billion in December. In 2013, the trade deficit was $471.5 billion in total, which was actually the smallest U.S. trade deficit since 2009.

When adjusted for inflation, the trade gap rose to $49.5 billion in December from $45.0 billion in the month of November.

Because the import-export calculation factors into gross domestic product, GDP growth will likely be trimmed from previous estimates, again, suggesting another year where the once-thought recovering U.S. economy loses steam. Last week, in the government’s advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate cited trade as one of the key contributors to the economy’s 3.2 percent annual growth pace during the period.

Trade added 1.33 percentage points to fourth-quarter GDP growth as exports expanded at their quickest pace in three years and imports slowed. But it appears that will not be sustained.

Aside from economic problems on the domestic front, including the growing concerns and negative impacts of ObamaCare, lowing growth in markets in China have contributed to the stall.

Strengthening domestic consumer demand has the potential to increase more imports, which will lead to some slowing in economic growth in the first quarter.

In December, exports dropped 1.8 percent to $191.3 billion, while petroleum exports hit a record high in the month of December, despite headwinds from anti-petro policy from the administration.

Imports ticked up 0.3 percent to $230.0 billion in December, while imports of consumer goods hit a record high. However, the potential impact was limited by a drop in the average price of imported crude oil, which hit its lowest level since February 2011.

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than

Culture, Entertainment

Ralph Kiner

FILE – In this April 5, 2012 file photo, Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner waves to the crowd before announcing the New York Mets starting line-up before an opening day baseball game against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field in New York. The baseball Hall of Fame says slugger Ralph Kiner has died. He was 91. The Hall says Kiner died Thursday, Feb. 6, 2014, at his home in Rancho Mirage, Calif.WLD (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II, File)

Baseball Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner, a slugger who also enjoyed a half-century career as a popular broadcaster, died Thursday at age 91 at his home in Rancho Mirage with his family at his side.

Kiner hit 369 home runs during his impressive 10-year career, which mostly played out with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He made his debut in 1946 and instantly received the reputation as an avid home run hitter, either winning or tying for the National League lead in homers in each of his first 7 seasons.

When he retired, Kiner was sixth on the career home run list. Several years later, he joined the broadcast crew of the New York Mets for their expansion season in 1962, and for many including myself, my grandfather and my best friend, became a household name synonymous with our beloved Shea Stadium, which held a booth that was named in his honor.

When that dear friend, whom I regrettably have not seen in years, found out about the news, he sent the following in an email:

I just wanted to pass this along. That makes me really sad. We grew up with him. Some of my favorite memories from childhood are watching the Mets games at home with my grandmother or at your house with you and your grandfather and listening to Ralph call the games and watching Kiner’s Korner. Good times.

“Kiner’s Korner” served as a gathering time post-game for us, where our favorite stars would join Kiner for post-game talks. He provided a warm environment for the stars and their fans to get connect, joking as he once forgot his own name on air.

Unfortunately, Kiner had a stroke about 10-years ago, yet he remained an occasional part of the Mets game, appearing from time to time in announcements. He worked a handful of games last season, his 52th year of calling their games.

“As one of baseball’s most prolific power hitters for a decade, Ralph struck fear into the hearts of the best pitchers of baseball’s Golden Era despite his easygoing nature, disarming humility and movie-star smile,” Hall President Jeff Idelson said in a statement.

“His engaging personality and profound knowledge of the game turned him into a living room companion for millions of New York Mets fans who adored his game broadcasts and later `Kiner’s Korner’ for more than half a century,” he said. “He was as comfortable hanging out in Palm Springs with his friend Bob Hope as he was hitting in front of Hank Greenberg at Forbes Field.”

“Ralph Kiner was one of the most beloved people in Mets history — an original Met and extraordinary gentleman,” Mets chairman and CEO Fred Wilpon said in a statement. “After a Hall of Fame playing career, Ralph became a treasured broadcasting icon for more than half a century.  His knowledge of the game, wit, and charm entertained generations of Mets fans.  Like his stories, he was one of a kind.”

Baseball Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner, a

News, Politics

irs-scandal-investigation

Newly discovered email released by the House Ways and Means Committee conducting the IRS investigation reveal former IRS official Lois Lerner was integrating new rules in secret with Obama’s treasury officials.

In fact, rather than the targeting practices being a result of a few local officials in the Cincinnati office, Lerner was intimately involved in the designing of the target mechanisms.

Lois Lerner took the Fifth after first awkwardly providing a defense of herself, drawing severe criticism, but it is becoming increasingly obvious she was trying to avoid answering congressional questions for a dubious reason.

In an email dated from February 2011, Lerner writes that the tea party matter was “very dangerous” and “Cincy should probably NOT have these cases.”

It was direct correspondence from a treasury official to Lerner implying they work “off plan” — which is a coded reference for keeping their meetings from publicly available schedules.

The new regulations would, which are unbelievably still pending approval right now, would permit the IRS to target any political dissent by non-profit groups, such regulations that are unconstitutional:

  • Not allowed to use words like “oppose,” “vote,” “support,” “defeat,” and “reject.”
  • Not allowed to mention, on a website, or in any communication that would reach 500 people or more, the name of a candidate for office, 30 days before a primary election and 60 days before a general election.
  • Not allowed to mention the name of a political party if they have a candidate running for office 60 days before a general election.
  • Not allowed voter registration drives or conducting a non-partisan “get-out-the-vote” drives.
  • Not allowed to create or distribute voter guides outlining how incumbents voted on particular bills.
  • Can not host candidates for office at any event, including debates or forums up for 2 months before the general election
  • All officers or leaders cannot speak publicly about incumbents, legislation, and/or voting records without it jeopardizing its tax status.

Ironically, the IRS has exempted the labor unions and trade associations from these new rules, groups that support liberal candidates.

Furthermore, the Department of Justice trial attorney Barbara Bosserman, an Obama donor since 2004, is leading the so-called investigation Republicans rightfully deemed “compromised.”

Groups that faced prolonged IRS harassment and groups that are still enduring harassment from the IRS.

At the American Center for Law and Justice they filed suit against the IRS and key IRS officials on behalf of 41 conservative groups in 22 states.

Cleta Mitchell, in written testimony to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, underscored all of the criminal actions that are taking place.

Ms. Mitchell told the committee where she would advise the DOJ to direct their attention — criminal activities such as lying to congress, leaking confidential taxpayer information, and releasing confidential donor information.

The conduct of the criminal investigation has been nothing more than a farce with a Democratic partisan leading the way.

Approximately eight months after, the Department Of Justice has done nothing more than announce token gestures, attempting to minimize the investigation as much as possible.

Becky Gerritson, Founder and President of the Wetumpka TEA Party, offered written testimony, one of the many people who are suffering through the IRS harassment:

Not one member of Congress should ever declare war on some Americans because they do not respect their Constitutional rights and viewpoints and are unwilling to accept a United States Supreme Court ruling protecting those rights. Again, “I am telling many in my government that you have completely forgotten your place!”

In my previous testimony, I explained that our application was complete and accurate and we clearly qualified for a 501c4 tax-exempt status, yet that didn’t stop the IRS from demanding information they were not entitled to; unconstitutional requests that violated their own rules. The information that they demanded we give them had nothing to do with the status we were seeking. Why must the IRS know who came to our meetings? Why did they need to have copies of every speech ever given and the credentials of our speakers? Why did they need to know who our donors were? None of this was their business.

This is a very valid question that Ms. Gerritson is asking, although, the Obama administration is purposely delaying the release of relevant documents.

In a recent interview with Fox News, the president revealed how he truly felt regarding the IRS scandal, coming to the conclusion that there was “not even a “smidgen of corruption,” which is at odds with the fact there is an “on-going criminal investigation.”

President Obama is suffering in the polls, fueled by the fact he is no longer considered trustworthy in the eyes of the American people. If this does not come to a conclusion and no one is held accountable for these criminal actions, then the 2014 elections may be a greater disaster for the Democratic Party than previously conceived.

The IRS investigation has produced new email

News, Politics, Polls

Pundits and pollsters are just now catching up with People’s Pundit Daily on the status of this race, with the latest Arkansas Senate poll showing Cotton ahead.

Congressman Tom Cotton now holds a 5-point lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor in the first Rasmussen Reports poll of the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas.

A new statewide survey, utilizing the pollster’s likely Arkansas voter model, found Tom Cotton with 45 percent support to Pryor at 40 percent, with 5 percent saying some other candidate in the race, and 10 percent undecided.

The poll showing Cotton pulling away from Pryor is completely expected, though Rasmussen is not rated particularly high on the model used at PeoplesPunditDaily.com. The bottom line, however, is that the reality of the demographics in the state and how they have changed since Pryor first ran for election, heavily favors Cotton. We expected the polling to begin moving in his direction, and will likely be skeptical of others who disagree.

From our expanded analysis article on the rating assigned on the 2014 Senate Map:

For instance, the southern region of the state – which was the real key to Pryor’s past victories, has undergone a generational shift that favors Cotton. Name recognition from being his father’s son has helped Pryor outperform Democrats in the region, but he will likely not be able to rely on that name now since most of those voters will be 89. This is particularly true with an opponent like Tom Cotton, who represents the large southern swing district and is well-liked.

If you would like to read the analysis, click here, or view the whole map, but Cotton is now ahead on the PPD average by 1.7 percent.

Poll Date Sample Cotton (R) Pryor (D) Spread
PPD Average 8/4 – 2/5 — 41.5 39.8 Cotton +1.7
Rasmussen Reports 2/4 – 2/5 500 LV 45 40 Cotton +5
The Arkansas Poll 10/10 – 10/17 LV 37 36 Cotton +1
Talk Business Poll 10/8 – 10/8 603 LV 41 42 Pryor +1
Harper (R) 8/4 – 8/5 587 LV 43 41 Cotton +2

Pundits and pollsters are now catching up

Culture, Religion, Science, Video

creation debate

Is creation a viable model of origins in today’s modern, scientific era? Or, will evolution forever fall short of explaining their failings, such as the origin of the singularity, if it even exists? Were any minds changed by the creation debate between Ken Ham and Bill Nye, dubbed “Ham on Nye?”

Emmy Award-winning “Science Guy” educator and Planetary Society CEO Bill Nye debated the leading creation apologist, bestselling Christian author, CEO of Answers in Genesis and president of the Creation Museum, at the museum in Kentucky on Feb. 4.

Nye defended the theory of evolution against Ham, who argued in favor of creationism, or the religious belief that God created the universe.

Scientists have criticized Nye’s decision to debate, particularly University of Chicago biologist Dr. Jerry Coyne who was quoted calling the debate “pointless.”

Nye argues the give-and-take is a good idea,

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=z6kgvhG3AkI%26hl

Watch Full Creation Debate: Nye defends the

Economy

adp-national-jobs-report

Another payroll processor ADP jobs report shows the private sector added 175,000 jobs in January, missing Wall Street estimates for a gain of 180,000 jobs. Although small businesses added more jobs than larger companies, January’s job growth is the slowest pace for small companies since August.

As a service sector index released earlier today suggested, service providers grew more than manufacturers. For companies with fewer than 20 employees, service providers added 37,000 new positions, while goods producers added just 6,000.

And the same was true for slightly larger businesses with 20 to 49 employees, as service providers grew by 27,000 workers, while manufacturers by just 5,000.

The ADP National Employment Report is compiled from anonymous payroll data of ADP client companies. The report measures payroll information for nearly 24 million U.S. workers.

In January’s ADP National Employment Report, small businesses with fewer than 50 employees created 75,000 positions, followed by medium businesses, which created 66,000 new jobs. Large businesses were far behind, as companies with 500 or more employees adding just 34,000 new jobs.

The Labor Department will release its December jobs report on Friday, however, economists are already trying to scapegoat “cold weather” and attempting to ignore economic realities layer out in the new Congressional Budget Office report.

“Cold and stormy winter weather continued to weigh on the job numbers. Underlying job growth, abstracting from the weather, remains sturdy,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist.

“Gains are broad based across industries and company sizes, the biggest exception being manufacturing, which shed jobs, but that is not expected to continue,” he said.

But that is nowhere near the economic truth, at all.

Service sector job creation, which provides low-wage, largely part-time positions, has been outpacing higher paying manufacturing jobs since the Obama administration declared a recovery in 2009. And the trend has worsened with the passage of ObamaCare, which infused a large amount of expense and uncertainty in the labor market.

Though the CBO just revised the report showing how ObamaCare has and will incentivize people not to seek full-time gainful employment, as well as offers employers motivation to not hire, this grim new economic reality has been plaguing the U.S. economy since early 2010.

Another payroll processor ADP jobs report shows

People's Pundit Daily
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