Pundits and pollsters are just now catching up with People’s Pundit Daily on the status of this race, with the latest Arkansas Senate poll showing Cotton ahead.
Congressman Tom Cotton now holds a 5-point lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor in the first Rasmussen Reports poll of the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas.
A new statewide survey, utilizing the pollster’s likely Arkansas voter model, found Tom Cotton with 45 percent support to Pryor at 40 percent, with 5 percent saying some other candidate in the race, and 10 percent undecided.
The poll showing Cotton pulling away from Pryor is completely expected, though Rasmussen is not rated particularly high on the model used at PeoplesPunditDaily.com. The bottom line, however, is that the reality of the demographics in the state and how they have changed since Pryor first ran for election, heavily favors Cotton. We expected the polling to begin moving in his direction, and will likely be skeptical of others who disagree.
From our expanded analysis article on the rating assigned on the 2014 Senate Map:
For instance, the southern region of the state – which was the real key to Pryor’s past victories, has undergone a generational shift that favors Cotton. Name recognition from being his father’s son has helped Pryor outperform Democrats in the region, but he will likely not be able to rely on that name now since most of those voters will be 89. This is particularly true with an opponent like Tom Cotton, who represents the large southern swing district and is well-liked.
If you would like to read the analysis, click here, or view the whole map, but Cotton is now ahead on the PPD average by 1.7 percent.
|Poll||Date||Sample||Cotton (R)||Pryor (D)||Spread|
|PPD Average||8/4 – 2/5||—||41.5||39.8||Cotton +1.7|
|Rasmussen Reports||2/4 – 2/5||500 LV||45||40||Cotton +5|
|The Arkansas Poll||10/10 – 10/17||LV||37||36||Cotton +1|
|Talk Business Poll||10/8 – 10/8||603 LV||41||42||Pryor +1|
|Harper (R)||8/4 – 8/5||587 LV||43||41||Cotton +2|