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aig

AIG headquarters.

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) confirmed Tuesday Robert Benmosche is resigning as president and CEO of the insurance giant. Peter Hancock, who currently serves as executive vice president and chief executive officer of AIG Property Casualty, will take the helm as CEO.

Though Benmosche will resign from the board, he will be taking on an advisory role. In that capacity, Benmosche will closely advise the new CEO and continue to work with the company’s internal leadership development programs.

Peter Hancock, 55, first joined AIG in 2010 after serving as vice chairman at KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY). He was named CEO of AIG Property Casualty back in March of 2011. He has a long resume demonstrating he is more than equipped for the position, on paper.

In 20 years at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Hancock served as the bank’s chief financial officer, established the bank’s global derivatives group and ran its global fixed income business and global credit portfolio.

“As AIG enters a time of great change and opportunity, we are confident that Peter Hancock is uniquely qualified to lead the company and its employees to future success,” AIG chairman Robert S. Miller said in a statement.

Benmosche stepped into the top position at AIG in 2009, and single-handedly guided the company through the worst of the aftermath of the financial crisis and the initial government bailout totaling $85 billion. AIG repaid its bailout, which ultimately totaled $182 billion back in 2012.

Benmosche had indicated his resignation would come early next year, saying he would like to spend more time with his family.

“Under Bob’s leadership, AIG has re-emerged from the crisis as a pre-eminent leader in the global insurance industry,” Hancock said.

AIG shares dropped 26 cents, or 0.5%, to $54.75 in after-hours trading on Tuesday. The stock is up 7.8% so far this year.

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) confirmed that Peter

Bowe Bergdahl prisoner exchange

Clockwise from top left: President Obama with the Berghdal family; Bowe Berghdal in Taliban’s prisoner exchange video; the Taliban Five; and, National Security Advisor Susan Rice.

It has been a tough week for the Obama administration following the prisoner exchange that resulted in the release of Bowe Bergdahl. The more lawmakers and the general public learn about the details of the deal, the more it becomes apparent that on just about every issue the president and members of his administration have not been telling the truth from the beginning.

Among the first of the many criticisms to surface was related to the danger the Obama administration may have put Americans in at home and abroad when he unilaterally released the “Taliban Five,” as they have become known by. Since whispers in Washington first suggested the possible release of these five war criminals in exchange for Bergdahl, lawmakers made clear to the administration that these men could never be released or they would inevitably return to the battlefield.

Secretary of State John Kerry dismissively called that concern “baloney” on Sunday during an interview. But he already knew that he wasn’t telling the truth. Last week, a top intelligence official told lawmakers in a classified Senate briefing that at least four out of the five Taliban leaders released would return to the battlefield to kill Americans.

People’s Pundit Daily previously reported on the testimony in a Defense Department report from 2012 that concluded it was “incontrovertible” that Bowe Bergdahl had deserted his unit when he disappeared on June 30, 2009. We now know that this is unequivocally true, and frankly, no longer even debatable. Yet, Susan Rice initially told the American public that Bergdahl served with “honor and distinction” last week during another shameful Sunday show appearance.

That claim is just as false as the administration’s excuse for breaking the law that required the president give Congress a 30-day notice prior to releasing any prisoners from the Gitmo detention center at Guantanamo Bay. While in Europe for the G-7 meeting, President Obama said he would not apologize for the deal and that he had no time to notify Congress because they feared his physical condition was dire. But, again, that simply was not the truth.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt,” which will air this weekend, that there was no “credible threat” against Bergdahl’s life that could have motivated the White House to keep its prisoner exchange plan a secret from Congress. House Speaker Boehner reenforced Fienstein’s claim, stating Obama’s claim “just isn’t true.”

Several doctors have now examined Bergdahl, and all have claimed they can say with a medical certainty that he was well nourished and in good health. Further, the “information” the administration cited was from a report dating back to January. If his physical condition was so dire, then why wait until June to press the deal?

The president’s job approval on foreign policy has fallen to an all-time low amid the controversy, which has followed a rash of never-ending foreign policy failures. The American public was initially skeptical of the exchange, disapproving of the deal by a slim margin in the days following the breaking news. But, as we first anticipated, public sentiment has grown even more negative as more of the scandalous details have become known. Now, a new USA Today/Pew Research poll shows 43 percent of Americans say it was wrong for Obama to make the deal, compared with just 34 percent who say it was the right thing to do.

Opposition is even stronger among veterans, who by a 68 -16 percent margin that Obama made the wrong decision.

“If he was a captured prisoner of war, we wouldn’t be having this discussion,” says Joe Davis, the director of public affairs for the Veterans of Foreign Wars. “He put his teammates in jeopardy, and you absolutely don’t do that in a combat zone.”

Veterans are worried about the precedent set by the transfer, Davis says. “We have a long history in this country of not negotiating with terrorists,” he says. “And we just did.”

Speaker Boehner echoed the concerns coming from the VFW.

“The fact is we have violated that policy and as a result, this made America less safe, here and all around the world. And we’re going to pay for it. There is not any doubt in my mind there are going to be costs … lost lives, associated with what came out of this.”

And the story might get even worse still.

Now, new reports suggest the Obama administration may have even paid a ransom for a certain deserter and likely traitor, in addition to granting the release of the Taliban Five. Best-selling author Brad Thor was the first to raise the question last week. But the Washington Free Beacon also spoke with a senior US intelligence official who characterized the possibility as likely. In fact, those who have experience dealing with the Haqqani network know that their motivation for kidnapping is monetary in nature. Only one member of the Taliban Five released from Gitmo was Haqqani, suggesting little incentive for them to accept the terms of the exchange.

Worth noting, one of the group’s top fundraisers — if not the top fundraiser — was killed in Pakistan late last year. According to U.S. intelligence officials, the Haqqani network was strapped for cash, and would have preferred to hold out for a ransom rather than trade Bergdahl for Gitmo detainees.

Of course, this would seem to be mere speculation. Except, U.S. intelligence officials closely involved with the Haqqani network told the Washington Free Beacon otherwise.

“The ransom plan was reportedly abandoned, but the intelligence official insisted that there is reason to believe that cash changed hands as part of the deal,” Lachlan Markay reported. And it gets worse.

“The Haqqanis could give a rat’s ass about prisoners,” the official said, referring to the Haqqani Network, a designated terrorist group in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the five Guantanamo Bay prisoners who were freed in exchange for Bergdahl’s release. “The people that are holding Bergdahl want[ed] cash and someone paid it to them,” he said. The theory relies in large measure on a distinction that has been lost in much of the press coverage of the Bergdahl deal.

A number of news reports on the circumstances surrounding the prisoner exchange have used “Haqqani” and “Taliban” interchangeably…Haqqani, he said, “benefits zero from the prisoner exchange. … Based on 10 years of working with those guys, the only thing that would make them move Bergdahl is money.” … “We just funded them for the next 10 years is my guess,” he said.

Meanwhile, a House panel on Tuesday suspiciously and overwhelmingly backed a measure prohibiting the use of U.S. funds for the transfer of detainees from the prison. The Appropriations Committee voted 33-13 on Tuesday for an amendment to the defense spending bill.

The amendment was sponsored by Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey and backed by six Democrats. It would prohibit money for the foreign transfer of detainees. The full House debates the bill next week, while for the first time in his presidency, whispers of impeachment are being circulated around Capitol Hill. Despite countless scandals plaguing the administration, the release of Gitmo detainees has sparked outraged from lawmakers never before seen over the past nearly-six years.

President Obama has failed to carry out the two most-basic duties of a commander-in-chief, which is to protect American citizens by providing for their common national defense, and to faithfully execute the laws of the United States. That’s not just a sentiment growing among Republicans, but also among Democrats.

“Even I have had enough,” read one email shared by Ron Fournier of the National Journal. It was from “one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington,” he said. “Talented guy but no leader,” another email read, only this one was written by a Democratic lobbyist and former member of Congress. And the list goes on.

But one can’t help to think: Talented at what? If even the president’s allies are conceding he is not a good leader, then the only talent he must still have is his ability to lie to Congress and the American people about his dereliction of duty, yet somehow avoid being held responsible for his failures.

As more details emerge regarding the release

Alison Lundergan Grimes

U.S. Senate candidate and Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

This is bad, very bad, for U.S. Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democrat running against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Grimes’ campaign claimed last week that she would use the high-dollar fundraiser she attended with Majority Leader Harry Reid to fight for the Kentucky coal industry. Now, a leaked audio from the event shows Grimes had no intention of doing so, breaking her promise she has repeatedly made to the people of Kentucky.

“Alison Grimes already has a credibility problem with Kentuckians,” the NRSC said in an email to PPD. “This leaves little doubt that Grimes will say whatever it takes back home but do little to stop Obama’s anti-coal agenda in DC.”

The fundraiser took place amid the Obama administration unilaterally issuing regulations on existing power plants that would undoubtedly cripple economies in states like Kentucky. The first-ever nationwide restriction on carbon emissions was a controversial move that is key to President Obama’s climate change agenda, and aims to use the Environmental Protection Agency to force existing plants to cut pollution by 30 percent by 2030.

Aside from the new regulation bypassing Congress — which was met with fierce criticism from Republican and embattled Democratic lawmakers claiming he didn’t have such an authority — the economic costs to the American people will be severe. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce released a study that concluded the new rule will kill 224,000 jobs every year through the year 2030, and will impose at least $50 billion in annual costs. Among the states that will be severely affected by the new regulation are Kansas, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky.

The McConnell camp immediately took the opportunity to pounce on Grimes, who is shaping up to be a less-than-average candidate.

“Alison Lundergan Grimes just did exactly what every Kentuckian knew she would — tell them one thing and do another with Harry Reid,” Allison Moore, McConnell’s campaign spokeswoman said in a statement. “If there was any question about what she would do as a senator, this tape erased all doubt.”

The leaked audio reenforces suspicions that Grimes says whatever she needs to say in Kentucky to the people of the state, but then acts and speaks very differently when in Washington. D.C. Though the Kentucky Senate race was never really contested ground on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions, despite what some other pundits have suggested, Democrats had high hopes for Grimes.

Many Democrats believed that Kentucky was one of two red states that they may have had an opportunity to play offense in during the upcoming battle for control of the U.S. Senate in November. However, we previously reported on what were clearly early warning signs with the over-hyped Democratic candidates in this race back in May, as well as the other state the party had hoped for an upset — Georgia. Grimes has shown a relatively lackluster ability to fundraise and offer depth, but her take on the race is showing signs of detachment from political reality.

“I had the opportunity to drive by the Capitol, Leader [Reid]; I just like to give Mitch McConnell a heart attack every time I come to D.C. to check out where my new office will be next year,” Grimes said in the audio. “I stand here today where no individual has ever been before. And that’s with over 18 polls that have been taken, the majority of which show we run even or ahead of the minority leader.”

Yet, the latest polling surveys conducted on the Kentucky Senate race are beginning to reflect the political reality in the conservative state, with Mitch McConnell starting to pull away from Alison Lundergan Grimes even before these latest revelations.

The Grimes campaign and the majority leader’s office attempted to push back on the report, claiming Grimes had a “private conversation” with Harry Reid regarding the new EPA regulations.

A leaked audio from a DC fundraiser

Tom Tancredo colorado governor race

Colorado Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo speaks in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo: REUTERS)

A left-wing political group is being accused of meddling in the Colorado Republican primary for governor by running TV ads favoring Republican candidate Tom Tancredo. The former 2010 Constitution Party candidate was viewed by many as a spoiler for Republican Dan Maes.

Though Tancredo took roughly 36 percent of the vote in a three-way race, while Maes earned just 11 percent, the liberal group believes he is the weaker candidate to face vulnerable incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper in November. Tancredo’s only real primary opponent, former Rep. Bob Beauprez, has been seen by many as the stronger candidate. The leftist group, Protect Colorado Values, has a TV ad that depicts the former Republican congressman as the only candidate voters can trust to fight ObamaCare, a law that remains deeply unpopular in the state of Colorado.

“He’s still of the country’s strongest opponents of ObamaCare” says the ad’s narrator, who closes by saying Tancredo is “too conservative for Colorado.” Democrats believe the ad, entitled “Futile,” which says Tancredo is “too conservative,” will convince Republican primary voters to support Tancredo at the polls on June 24.

http://youtu.be/Z9Ad23MIYwk

Still, the group is hedging their bets with another ad targeting Beauprez, entitled “Both Ways,” because Democrats openly fear Beauprez as a threat to Gov. John Hickenlooper. The ad points out Beauprez once backed the individual mandate that’s now part of ObamaCare and attacks his fiscal-conservative credentials by saying he supports spending bills while the national debt “ballooned $2 trillion.”

http://youtu.be/BgdHrL7x-Jg

Beauprez has criticized Hickenlooper and called on him to stop the “desperate attempt” to manipulate Republican voters. “Hickenlooper and his allies have resorted to dishonest, negative attacks and underhanded tactics intended to do one thing – take away the right of honest Republicans to choose their own nominee for Colorado governor,” Beauprez said Monday.

“The simple fact is that Hickenlooper and these liberal attack groups believe I can beat Hickenlooper in November.”

Despite Tancredo’s opposition to amnesty in a state with a significant Hispanic voting bloc, he is the only candidate to have matched the incumbent in early polling. Beauprez will have to make the case for his electability with the latest public poll conducted by Republican polling firm Magellan Strategies showing him trailing the governor by 15 points. And, of course, he will have to first get past Tancredo to do it.

Internal polling from the Beauprez camp shows him trailing Tancredo 25-to-27 percent, which is a statistical dead heat. But in a four-way race with Secretary of State Scott Gessler and former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp, activist voters backing Tancredo will likely show up with more enthusiasm than traditional Republican voters.

Meanwhile, the Colorado State Republican Party called Protect Colorado Values a “shadowy” and “liberal” special interest group. In a statement, they accused the group of attempting to influence the primary outcome with money from rich liberals.

Tancredo has publicly commented on the fact he’s just fine with the free advertising, though he understands the “too conservative” narrative has the potential to cause him real trouble in the general election. Yet his 2010 showing suggests e may not be the candidate the Republican Establishment and liberal groups view him to be. Demographically, the state is beginning to look like New Mexico, where libertarian-leaning Republicans – such as Gary Johnson – actually appeal to voters and surprise the pundits. Rand Paul, for instance, has consistently led Hillary Clinton in early 2016 presidential polling in the state, and he is the only candidate to do so.

Protect Colorado Values was started just days ago with the stated purpose of supporting and opposing Republican and Democratic candidates in the governor’s race, according to documents filed with the Colorado campaign finance office.

However, the registering agents are listed as Julie Well and Jim Alexee. Wells has registered at least 27 liberal-leaning political groups in Colorado and is a registered Democrat, according to the group MediaTrackers.com

Alexee has worked for the Ohio Democratic Party and was a presidential program comptroller for powerful Democratic supporter Service Employees International Union, according to his online resume.

The news website Complete Colorado claims the group has invested — on the low end — $89,000 in ads on a Denver-area TV station.

There is no doubt Gov. Hickenlooper’s chances of reelection have increased this year. Whispers from the Democrat Governor’s Association were contemplating writing him off last year, but now the race was recently changed to “Leans Democrat” on PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions. Fundraising improvements, polling, and developments in the potentially toxic primary have all suggested that the race is beginning to move in the incumbents favor, even as the U.S. Senate race slips from Democrat hands.

The Republican primary for Colorado governor is rated a “Toss-Up” on PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions.

A left-wing group is being accused of

special forces

Five Special Forces soldiers were killed in Afghanistan in what has been reported as a possible friendly fire incident in the southern region on Monday.

A senior Defense Department official told Fox News Tuesday that the troops were killed after they called in air support from a B-1 bomber. The request for air support was made after they had come into contact with enemy forces.

A NATO statement confirmed earlier Tuesday mentioned the deaths of soldiers, but did not mention any other details. That is nothing new, as it is standard policy for the home country to identify and report their causalities.

“The casualties occurred during a security operation when their unit came into contact with enemy forces,” the statement from NATO’s International Security Assistance Force read. “Tragically, there is the possibility that fratricide may have been involved. The incident is under investigation. Our thoughts are with the families of those killed during this difficult time.”

People’s Pundit Daily could not independently verify the report, but if it is true, then it would be one of the most cases of friendly fire ever to have occurred throughout the 14-year Afghan war. One of the worst came in April 2002 when four Canadian soldiers were killed when an American F-16 dropped a bomb on them near a night firing exercise in the southern Kandahar province.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. A Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousef Ahmadi, said a battle took place on Monday night between foreign troops and Taliban fighters in the Arghandab district. Ahmadi claimed a “huge number” of NATO soldiers were killed or wounded. However, the Taliban are known for both exaggerating their claims and taking credit for deaths they are not truly responsible for causing.

A senior police official in southern Zabul province said the coalition soldiers may have been killed when they called in for close air support.

Provincial police chief Gen. Ghulam Sakhi Rooghlawanay said Afghan and NATO troops conducting a joint operation in the area’s Arghandab district early Monday came under fire by the Taliban.

“After the operation was over on the way back, the joint forces came under the attack of insurgents, then foreign forces called for an air support. Unfortunately five NATO soldiers and one Afghan army officer were killed mistakenly by NATO air strike,” Rooghlawanay said.

There was no way to independently confirm either Rooghlawanay’s or the Taliban’s claims.

The deaths bring to 36 the number of NATO soldiers killed so far this year in Afghanistan, with eight service members killed in June. More than two-thirds of all American casualties resulting from the Afghanistan conflict have been under President Obama. The highest number of American fatalities recorded in a single incident occurred on August 6, 2011, in which a transport helicopter was shot down killing 30 Americans, including 22 Navy SEALs,

All U.S. combat troops are scheduled to be withdrawn from the country by the end of this year.

Five Special Forces soldiers were killed in

Well, Sen. Graham (R-SC), and others may have threatened Obama with impeachment if he released more prisoners from Guantanamo Bay, but Judge Jeanine Pirro took it a step farther over the weekend. In the video above, Judge Jeanine rips Obama for putting Americans’ lives in danger by trading the Taliban 5 for one certain deserter and likely traitor, Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl.

“Your action demand impeachment,” Pirro said Saturday.

In the video above, Judge Jeanine rips

florida governor race

Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Republican again, is challenging incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott in the Florida governor race.

A new Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll conducted solely on the Miami-Dade’s electorate shows weak support in the Democratic stronghold for Charlie Crist. While verall, Crist leads Gov. Rick Scott 47-35 percent in the Democratic stronghold, Crist has just half the support President Obama had in the region in 2012.

Crist’s weak base of support is largely due to his pathetic showing among the county’s Hispanic voting bloc, who currently favor the Republican 50 – 31 percent. Gov. Rick Scott is turning out to be a potential model for future Republican candidates. Scott has aggressively courted the Hispanic vote, releasing two Spanish-language TV ads and a Spanish-language radio ad in Miami-Dade and other Sunshine State markets. Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Scott’s new running mate, was formerly the Miami-Dade property appraiser.

In truth, Hispanic voters have never liked or supported Charlie Crist. Even when he was a relatively popular Republican governor, prior to switching to the Democratic Party, he failed to win a majority of Hispanics. Crist was only able to carry the county once, and that was during the landslide reelection of former Gov. Jeb Bush. He was clobbered by now-Sen. and Republican Marco Rubio among Hispanics in 2010.

The issue of restricted travel to Cuba should work for Crist in theory, but his recent flip-flop in favor of ending the travel ban has hurt him more than it has helped him. Just 5 percent say they are more likely to vote for him now that he has changed his position, while 24 percent say they are less likely to support Crist.

Cuban voters who suffered under socialist policy and rule favor Gov. Scott by a wide margin, but Crist performs better among those voters who were born in the U.S. U.S.-born Cubans were evenly split between Gov. Scott and Crist, while those born on the socialist-run island back Gov. Scott over Crist by a whopping 61 – 25 percent margin.

Of all the registered Hispanics in Miami-Dade, 37 percent are Republican, 30 percent are Democrats and 32 percent have no party affiliation or belong to a third party. However, while the GOP still has an advantage on paper, they are losing ground in Miami-Dade. The same is true for the traditional Republican support for hardline positions against Cuba. Overall, there are now slightly more registered independents than Republicans, which is a pattern we have seen nationwide. A majority of independents favor Republican candidates because most are former Republicans, disenfranchised by a party without a message. Both are far outnumbered by 188,000 registered Democrats.

Nevertheless, non-Cuban Hispanics are increasing in population and in greater proportions in Miami-Dade and the rest of the county. Yet, Charlie Crist will still have an uphill battle in November, despite leading in some early polls statewide.

First, as we’ve previously examined, Florida Republicans vote at higher rates during mid-term elections than traditional Democratic constituencies, including Cuban voters. The Sunshine State has a large senior voting bloc, which has become the most reliable Republican constituency both in Florida and nationwide.

The Florida Governor race is rated “Leans Republican” on PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions.

A new Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll

Iowa Senate race

Joni Ernst delivers her remarks at a victory celebration during a primary election night party on Tuesday, June 3, 2014, at the Des Moines Social Club in downtown Des Moines, Iowa. Ernst will face Rep. Bruce Braley in the closely-watched Iowa Senate race. (Photo: Charlie Litchfield/The Register)

The Iowa Senate race is already heating up following the absolutely dominating performance of self-described “mother, soldier, conservative” Joni Ernst. People’s Pundit Daily is now affirming our “Toss-Up” rating after revisiting our election projection model. If Republican Joni Ernst defeats Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, then she will become the first female U.S. Senator to represent the state of Iowa, leaving Mississippi as the sole state yet to elect a women to the U.S. Senate.

Following the Republican primary for Iowa Senate, Ernst has pulled ahead in the polls. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely Iowa voters found Ernst with 45 percent support to Braley’s 44 percent. Only 3 percent said they prefer some other candidate in the race, while 9 percent remained undecided. That survey was followed up with another poll conducted by Loras College that also found momentum building for Ernst. She now leads Braley by a wider 48 – 42 percent margin, according to Loras, and also had a 3-point lead among those who say they will “definitely vote” for their choice.

Admittedly, the reversal in polling has been dramatic, something extremely rare in political contests absent scandal or event. However, this was actually expected based upon the model used at PPD. And when we dig a little deepeer into past surveys, we can easily identify part of Braley’s problem.

Despite early polling consistently showing Braley leading his potential Republican challengers, we first identified a “Democrat Disadvantage” in the Iowa Senate race back in December of 2013, prior to Braley being caught on video trashing Iowa farmers and the extremely popular Republican incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley.

Which brings me to my first point, and is a great place to start when explaining the political environment in Iowa.

Iowa voters approve 62 – 27 percent of the job Senator Chuck Grassley is doing in the Senate, but in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted prior to the health care debacle, only a 55 – 31 percent margin approved of retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. In fact, what most pundits and “political hacks” have been missing, is that Iowa voters simply want their next senator to be a Republican and the next Senate to be controlled by the Republican Party.

The very first Quinnipiac poll found Iowa voters by a margin of 46 – 41 percent say that they want the Republican Party to control the U.S. Senate, while a Harper Polling survey conducted a month earlier had found Iowa voters said by a margin of 42 – 38 percent they want a Republican senator. More importantly, ideologically, Iowans are firmly aligned with the Republican candidate on the issues, and because Ernst has managed to build a coalition that includes both conservative activists and the Establishment, it isn’t hard to imagine she will have the ability to convey that message.

By a 2 to 1 margin, Iowa voters say they want a senator who opposes ObamaCare and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and a plurality want someone who is opposed to stricter gun control laws. While I expect the gender gap to persist in this race to a certain extent, despite the historical significance of a potential Senator Ernst, the likely composition of the electorate will help to blunt the gender gap. The Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, was D+1 in 2010, when Republicans made big gains in the state-wide elections.

Worth noting, in 2010, Republicans won 83 percent of the races in states where the PVI was D+2 or more Republican. In 2014, the PVI is again estimated at D+1, and the environment is arguably shaping up to be either equally favorable or even more favorable to Republican candidates.

President Obama’s job approval rating, as I’ve previously explained in more detail, weighs heavily on the election projection model used at PPD. Obama’s approval rating in Iowa has consistently lagged behind the nationwide average. Even now as I write this, only 43 percent approve of Obama nationwide on the PPD average, while Obama’s approval in Iowa was at 39 percent in the last Quinnipiac poll, and is 3 points lower than the national average according to Gallup.

“President Barack Obama twice carried Iowa and it was the Iowa Caucuses which began his march to the presidency, but if he were on the ballot here today he would be toast,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Up until now, I have focused on several variables used in PPD’s election projection that clearly benefit Ernst, which even suggest an advantage for the Republican candidate. But there are two important variables keeping this race a competitive “Toss-Up” rather than “Leans Republican.”

First, the money race. Braley will have a significant financial advantage over Ernst into the general election. While his advantage is likely to shrink over the coming months, his campaign has reported more than $2.3 million cash on hand as of mid-May. Ernst, on the other hand, will have to rebuild her campaign coffers after a costly primary. Second, Braley is a serving congressman, which means he has a base of support to draw on that is significantly larger and more loyal than a state senator has.

On a final note, even though candidate recruitment or strength is a very influential variable in PPD’s model, it has been completely overblown in favor of Braley by other pundits. “Ernst proved herself to be the best of a second-tier lot: Now she’s in a first-tier race, and she needs to continue to improve her performance, particularly on fundraising,” wrote Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. While I obviously agree with the latter point made by the guys at the Center for Politics, will all do respect, they are off the mark on the former.

Sure, it is true that Ernst has yet to become a proven candidate. But the only candidate in this race so far who made a near-catastrophic mistake worthy of being labeled a second-tier candidate, was Bruce Braley. If they think that the video showing Braley trashing Iowa farmers is not going to be plastered on every Iowan’s TV screen, and well-exposed when the two candidates trade blows in a debate, then they are sorely mistaken.

Many of the other pundits are rating this race “Leans Democrat,” but for all the reasons above, I must respectfully disagree. When we tally up all of the variables in our model, Republican Joni Ernst has a small advantage, specifically a 53 percent chance of victory. The race will remain a “Toss-Up” until one of the candidates moves above a 55 percent chance of victory, but make no mistake, the Iowa Senate race is now a solid “Toss-Up.”

Poll Date Sample MoE Ernst (R) Braley (D) Spread
PPD Average 6/4 – 7/24 44.8 44.0 Ernst +0.8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5 – 7/24 LV 2.7 48 47 Ernst +1
NBC News/Marist 7/7 – 7/13 1599 RV 2.5 43 43 Tie
Quinnipiac 6/12 – 6/16 1277 RV 2.7 40 44 Braley +4
Loras College 6/4 – 6/5 600 LV 4.0 48 42 Ernst +6
Rasmussen Reports 6/4 – 6/5 750 LV 4.0 45 44 Ernst +1
PPP (D) 5/15 – 5/19 914 RV 3.3 39 45 Braley +6
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D) 4/24 – 4/30 500 LV 4.4 40 44 Braley +4
Suffolk 4/3 – 4/8 800 LV 3.5 30 38 Braley +8
Rasmussen Reports 3/24 – 3/25 750 LV 4.0 37 40 Braley +3
Quinnipiac 3/5 – 3/10 1411 RV 2.6 29 42 Braley +13
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/23 869 RV 3.3 35 41 Braley +6
Quinnipiac 12/10 – 12/15 RV 38 44 Braley +6
Harper (R) 11/23 – 11/24 985 LV 3.1 36 42 Braley +6
PPP (D) 7/5 – 7/7 668 RV 3.8 33 45 Braley +12

 

People's Pundit Daily is now affirming our

cbo-obamacare-costs-jobs

Democratic President Barack Obama, with only Democratic lawmakers, attend the signing of the Affordable Care Act, better known as ObamaCare.

The CBO has once again been forced to backtrack from their inaccurate scoring of a big government entitlement, adding a hardly noticed footnote to a revised report projecting the cost of ObamaCare. President Obama and the Democrats have been citing the CBO to support their claim that the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as ObamaCare, will reduce the deficit by more than $120 billion over the next decade.

Republicans have always pushed back on that math, handling the CBO with kid gloves rather than indicting the so-called bipartisan agency for what it is, which is an agency established to justify big government programs born during the “Great Society” reform era. Out of all the big entitlement programs ever scored by the CBO, just one — Medicaid Part D, a program unlike ObamaCare that was predicated upon free-market competition — has cost less than the CBO had forecast.

“CBO and JCT can no longer determine exactly how the provisions of the ACA that are not related to the expansion of health insurance coverage have affected their projections of direct spending and revenues,” the CBO wrote in a tiny footnote. “The provisions that expanded coverage established entirely new programs or components of programs that can be isolated and reassessed. Isolating the incremental effects of those provisions on previously existing programs and revenues four years after enactment of the ACP is not possible.”

The footnote was first caught by Roll Call earlier this week. Still, it wasn’t until today that it received the attention of health care policy experts who are now condemning the CBO for pulling away from its earlier forecasting. Yet, despite all of their grumbling, the reason behind their retreat exemplifies the inherent flaw with the CBO, big government programs and particularly ObamaCare.

Basically, the CBO had based its original estimate on the assumption that the law, which included over $700 billions in Medicare cuts and tax increases to finance insurance subsidies — would actually be implemented lawfully and as written. In reality, President Obama has unilaterally delayed and altered the law whenever it was politically beneficial to himself and Democrats for him to do so.

Further, the projection for the number of Americans willing to participate in the exchanges was way off.

The CBO has once again been forced

The latest FOX poll shows Republicans have retaken the lead over Democrats on the generic ballot by a 43 – 39 percent margin, representing the fifth straight month voter preference has change.

The Fox News Poll is conducted jointly by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), who say voter volatility has been high this year. “That said,” Democratic pollster Chris Anderson adds, “most other findings in the poll suggest an increasingly favorable environment for the Republicans heading toward the midterms.”

Republican pollster Daron Shaw also pointed out the Republican advantage increases when sampling voters who are “extremely” or “very” interested in the election. Among those enthusiastic voters most likely to cast a ballot, 48 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate in their congressional district, while just 37 percent say they would support the Democrat.

However, that margin is a danger sign for Democrats when compared to last month’s FOX poll, when voters said by a slimmer 46-39 percent margin that they favor Republicans. The president’s job approval is also weighing down on Democrat candidates, and as voters sour on Obama the environment gets worse for Democrats.

Recently released surveys from other public pollsters found all-time low approval ratings for the president on foreign policy, an issue that stayed stubbornly high during the 2012 presidential campaign. Now, according to the FOX poll, voters widely disapprove of the president’s handling of foreign policy by a 34 – 56 percent margin.

On health care, an issue that was once one of the strongest for Obama, just 39 percent of voters approve of Obama’s job while 58 percent disapprove. The economy, which contracted in the first quarter, is a continual headache for the White House and Democrats. Only 39 percent approve of his handling of the economy, but 59 percent disapprove.

Still, Republicans have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Democrats typically show more enthusiasm as we draw nearer toward Election Day.

“What drives the difference between the overall results and the subgroup of interested voters is that 61 percent of Republicans are interested in the upcoming election, while just 55 percent of Democrats are,” Shaw told FOX News. “What might concern Republicans is that interest in the election among their party faithful is down five points from last month, while interest is up five points among Democrats.”

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,006 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from June 1-3, 2014. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The latest FOX poll shows Republicans have

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