Saturday, November 25, 2017
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2018 HOUSE ELECTION PROJECTIONS INTRODUCTION

The 2018 House Battleground Congressional Districts Map and Table with ratings from the People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) Election Projection Model.

In 2018, Democrats will need a net gain of 24 seats to take back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. There are only 23 Republican-held congressional districts that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, while 12 Democrats represent districts that backed President Donald J. Trump.

Below you can view tables with historic performances nationwide and statewide.

2018 HOUSE ELECTIONS PROJECTIONS TABLE

Since World War II, the president’s party lost seats in 16 out of 18 midterm elections. That includes 8 out of 9 midterms with a Republican president and 8 out of 9 midterms with a Democratic president. That may sound promising, but the PPD Election Projection Model analyzed all 18 and found a disturbing pattern for Democrats.

Midterm losses for the Democratic Party under a Democratic president were far more severe, losing an average of 33.5 seats during those 8 cycles. The worst post-World War II cycle for Democrats was the astounding 63-seat landslide loss during in the 2010 midterm election following the passage of ObamaCare.

Meanwhile, Republican Party’s midterm losses with their president in the White House averaged less than 21 seats (20.6).

MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS TABLE: 1934 TO 2014

• Beginning with Obama, job approval is the average job approval during the noted half month period.
• A “lame-duck” mid-term (Congressional) election is one that occurs when the incumbent President is constitutionally prohibited from seeking re-election in the next scheduled presidential election. Arguable exceptions are noted below.
* Harry S. Truman was not prevented from running for a 3rd term in 1952 although he chose not to seek re-election.
† Lyndon B. Johnson was not a lame-duck president in 1966, but in March 1968 he chose not to seek re-election.
± Although Gerald Ford was not a lame-duck president and did run for re-election in 1976, the 1974 mid-term election took place only three months after the resignation of Richard Nixon and only two months following Ford’s pardon of Nixon.

(Data Source: The American Presidency Project)