Detailed data on voters’ party affiliation (Party ID), ideology, race, gender, religion and religiosity. More detailed data will be added consistently and periodically. Worth noting, the percentage reflecting “Party Advantage” does not alone determine a battleground state’s rating. Further, it does not necessarily guarantee a candidate of the party enjoying an advantage will be victorious in a particular contest.
Let’s explain that a bit further.
First, the ballot preference of those who identify as “Independents” influences a state’s rating just as they influence the outcome of an election.
For example, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in North Carolina, the large percentage of independents who are significantly more likely to support Republicans than Democrats are more than enough to tip the Tar Heel State.
Second, certain moderate candidates demonstrate a state’s rating is appropriate even when the data may indicate it leans toward one party or another.
For example, take the Sunshine State. Most indicators on paper suggest Florida should Lean Republican, though it is widely referred to as the country’s largest battleground state. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson demonstrates the flexibility of the state’s independent voting bloc. These “mind-changers” are easily large enough to erase that edge and leave it only Slight Republican.