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Monday, November 12, 2018

Current Balance of Power in the U.S. Senate

49 Democrats

Republican Simple Majority Control

Republicans 51

Model Mixed LiveModel OnlyModel Mixed Final

Loading data for the 2018 Senate Election Projection Map…

* The Mixed Model includes public polling.

Loading data for the 2018 Senate Election Projection Map…

* The Model Only projections include historical voting patterns, early vote, etc. Survey data only collected by Big Data Poll.

Loading data for the 2018 Senate Election Projection Map…

* The Model-Mix Final projections.

Current U.S. Senate Projections

23 Democrats No Election

54 Seat Majority

No Election Republicans 42

Solidly
CA
CT
DE
HI
ME
MD
NY
RI
VT
WA
Likely
MN
MA
NM
PA
VA
WI
Leaning
MI
MN
OH
Slightly
FL
MT
NJ
WV
Battleground
Slightly
AZ
IN
NV
Leaning
MO
TX
Likely
MS
ND
TN
Solidly
MS
NE
UT
WY

Senator John McCain, R-Ariz., passed away on August 25, 2018. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey appointed former Republican Senator Jon Kyl to replace him in the U.S. Senate until 2020.
U.S. Senate race has been polled by Big Data Poll for either People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) or the PPD Election Projection Model.
Polling for the model is funded by readers via subscriptions and individual donations.

PPD Election Projection Model

ProjectionsUpdatesMethodologyHistory

Following 2016, the PPD Election Projection Model added Slightly to the scale. The model maps three electorates for gauging potential outcomes. For each party, one electorate assumes a higher turnout among one party’s base juxtaposed to the other on a 4-cycle average, while the third assumes a normal base turnout.

Battleground: The truest of tossups. Neither party’s candidate has a clear edge and is generally seen as a 50/50 proposition. For our model, it means the three electorates we mapped out give each a victory if their base outperforms juxtaposed to the average, while the base model returns an even race.

Slightly: This year, we felt that there was a place for a tossup projection between Battleground and Leaning. This saw a race with a party’s candidate holding a very slight edge in the base model, albeit by an uncomfortably small margin.

Leaning: The traditional Leaning projection now means what we always meant it to mean, which is that the race is actively leaning toward one party’s candidate. High base turnout for either candidate can still mean their victory, but the base model has begun to show a clear advantage.

Likely: High base turnout for one candidate still does not spell their certain victory, while the base and high-base models obviously agree.

Solidly: While some would say something like, “there’s a 10% chance this will happen,” we say that Solidly is assigned when the model projects almost no scenario in which one party can prevail against the other.

Please note: While we will place the model-only projections separately, the mixed-model will adjust as actual voting data is collected.


Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background - Arizona. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Why the Election Model Favors Martha McSally in Arizona Senate Race

The U.S. Senate election projection in Arizona held steady at Slightly Republican on the PPD Election Projection Model, favoring Rep. Martha McSally.

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Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background - Nevada. (Photo: AdobeStock)

With Early Voting Closed, Model Pegs Nevada Senate Race a True Battleground

Early voting in The Silver State has ended and the projection model shows the U.S. Senate election in Nevada remains a true battleground.

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Projections are determined by PPD’s comprehensive model that includes several variables. We break them down into two separate categories. But first, a quick word on polling.

Polling is provided when available, and in-house polling is conducted by Big Data Poll. But polling in and of itself is not enough to determine a credible race rating. Media and public polling is weighted to value based on accuracy.

Statewide

The model uses several variables that we consider to be statewide, including but not limited to polling, state demographics and political leanings, prior voting history and trends, candidate strength, voter ideology, fundraising, voter registration and affiliation (separate).

Candidate recruitment and strength also considers incumbency, experience, GOTV (get out the vote) apparatus and campaign organizations. But it also considers ideology juxtaposed to the state.

Voter sentiment includes the direction of the state, economic optimism, real GDP and unemployment.

National

Presidential approval rating factors into the state as well, but the national political environment, or voters’ sentiment toward each party — including the ever-important variables of the economy, both state and national — carries significant weight. As we saw in the Obama era, high approval ratings may not be enough to save or defeat an incumbent party if the national sentiment blows hard enough one way or the other.

Election Projections DataTable

MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS: 1934 TO 2014

• Beginning with Barack Obama, job approval is the average job approval during the noted half month period.
• A “lame-duck” mid-term (Congressional) election is one that occurs when the incumbent President is constitutionally prohibited from seeking re-election in the next scheduled presidential election. Arguable exceptions are noted below.
* Harry S. Truman was not prevented from running for a 3rd term in 1952 although he chose not to seek re-election.
† Lyndon B. Johnson was not a lame-duck president in 1966, but in March 1968 he chose not to seek re-election.
± Although Gerald Ford was not a lame-duck president and did run for re-election in 1976, the 1974 mid-term election took place only three months after the resignation of Richard Nixon and only two months following Ford’s pardon of Nixon.

(Data Source: The American Presidency Project)