U.S. Retail Sales for October Beat Forecast, Indicating Solid 4Q Consumer Spending

The advance estimate for October 2018 U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% (±0.5%) for October, beating the forecast in the first beat on fourth-quarter consumer spending. While the report is solid, the headline does mask a negative revision.

Adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, U.S. retail and food services sales came in at $511.5 billion in October, and are up 4.6% (±0.5%) since October 2017.

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Released On 11/15/2018 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2018

Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.1 % -0.1 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.7 % 0.8 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change -0.1 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.7 % 0.7 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.5 % 0.3 % Control Group – M/M change 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % 0.3 %

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Total sales for the August 2018 through October 2018 period were up 5.0% (±0.5%) on the year, while he August 2018 to September 2018 percent change was revised from +0.1% (±0.5%)* to -0.1% (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales rose 0.9% (±0.5%) from September 2018 and 4.3% (±0.5%) from last year. Gasoline Stations posted 16.2% (±1.6%) gains from October 2017, while Nonstore Retailers posted 12.1% (±1.4%) increases since last year.