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Friday, November 22, 2019
HomeNewsEconomyAdvance Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Beats Forecast at Solid 3.2%

Advance Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Beats Forecast at Solid 3.2%

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate for first quarter (Q1) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a 3.2% seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Real GDP rose 2.2% in Q4 2018 and by 2.2% in Q1 2018.

The consensus forecast was calling for a more moderate but still solid 2.3% SAAR.

*Chart will update to reflect advance estimate. It initially reflects forecast.


Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Real GDP – Q/Q ∆2.2%2.3%1.4% — 2.8%3.2%
GDP Core Price Index – Q/Q ∆ 2.0%1.6%1.3% — 2.2%1.3%
GDP Price Index – Q/Q ∆1.7%1.7%1.2% — 2.8%0.9%
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆2.5%1.1%0.3% — 2.6%1.2%

The BEA will release a more complete “second estimate” for Q1 2019 GDP — along with Corporate Profits — on May 30. The final and “third estimate” to the former and a revision to the latter is scheduled to be released on June 27.

“The last trade deficit report coming in below -$50B was a bigger deal than expected,” Tim Anderson at TJM Investments said.

The U.S. trade deficit fell below $50 billion in February at $49.4 billion, down $1.8 billion from $51.1 billion and easily beating the forecast. It was the first dip below the $50-billion threshold since June 2018.

“This really highlights the difference between ‘academic economists’ and ‘business economists’,” Mr. Anderson added. “While the NY FED had an estimate of +1.8%, the Atlanta FED GDPNow forecast was +2.7%.”

“Clearly, the NowCast model was much more responsive to the rapidly improving economic data released in March and April.”

Current dollar GDP rose a solid 3.8%, or $197.6 billion, in Q1 2019 to $21.06 trillion. That’s down only slightly from 4.1%, or $206.9 billion in Q4 2018.

Consumer Spending

Worth noting, this beat doesn’t reflect what turned out to be stronger-than expected consumer spending.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income rose $147.2 billion in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of $229.0 billion in Q4 2018, largely the result of personal interest income, personal dividend income and proprietors’ income.

That decline was only in part offset by an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $116.0 billion, or 3.0%, in Q1 2019, compared with an increase of $222.9 billion, or 5.8%, in Q4 2018. Real disposable personal income rose 2.4% versus a 4.3% increase the prior quarter.

Personal saving was $1.11 trillion in Q1 2019, up from $1.07 trillion in Q4 2018. The personal saving rate — defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — inched up to 7.0% in Q1 2019. It came in at 6.8% in Q4 2018.

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

Latest comments

  • Avatar

    yay

  • Avatar

    The ‘one off’ trade deficit that many are touting as a ‘passing’ phase is just what Trump has been doing with all the trade negotiating he has been doing. OF course economists ‘who cannot count’ (ie – liberals) would not know how that works. Our trade deficit has been in the toilet almost forever and will always be in the toilet. Else how would the New World Order folks ever whittle down our immense wealth to make us even with third world countries.

    Note to NWO folks. When the mass of people in your countries finally understand what you have been doing to them the guillotine will be the best thing you can expect.

  • Avatar

    President Trump has proven to be a gigantic disappointment and totally inadequate. My extreme distaste and utter disdain for all things Democratic has extended the President every conceivable opportunity, but he has proved unwillingly to take control of our border, presiding instead over the slow death of America. 1,400 illegals a day that we actually process continue to enter the country.

    The last time he swore to take control of the border he allowed the Treasury Secretary buzzing market catastrophe in his ear to back him down, showing more interest in Wall Street than Main street. This time he only threatens to shut down only a section, or two, but even, if he does that much, which is doubtful he will undoubtedly back off in a week, or two. He’s already proven himself to be a weak Mary, a coward and a blow hard and now, the whole world knows it. The next six years won’t be pretty.

    We are already into year three and America is just about over, finished, done; you can stick a fork in this country. The Mexican cartels, MS13, illegals caravans carrying people from God only knows where are coming in the windows, entering America and lining up for benefits, bankrupting the nation, destroying what’s left of our country, our cultural heritage and our infrastructure. Trump does nothing hiding behind the wall and blaming congress. I suppose he will throw another rally any day now, another dog and pony show, another Hannity interview, but I’ll never vote for him again. He has betrayed us.

    7,000 ICE agents can’t round up enough of anything that would make a difference in terms of saving America and even, if they could Trump hasn’t even made an attempt to give them that order. Trump has played us for chumps. That much is clear. He isn’t stupid so that makes him just another traitor, a billionaire with his own agenda and another trick chasing a sale. I wanted to believe him. I gave him every possible opportunity and now Trump is dead to me, as dead as the America I loved, which he allowed to die.

    And you can tell all his supporters for me, they can take this economy of his and stick it where the sun won’t shine. If there isn’t any America for our children, who cares about a a bullschit, gold leaf billionaire and his economy? Mr. President. I spit on your treachery, your weakness and broken promises. Without America I have nothing and all the people you have fooled with your empty promises will come to it soon enough, but that bitter recognition won’t reinvest their children, or remove the Honduran trash, or the criminal cartels now in our midst. You lied and America died on your watch.

    The Chinese, N Korean’s and Mexican cartels will continue to abuse America and her citizens and Trump can do nothing. The President is too afraid not to have a deal, afraid to see the markets drop and because he is afraid our enemies see Trump as nothing, but hot air and bluff, choking in all the clutch plays like a weak and nervous Mary whenever faced with hard choices connected to a price.

    Those adversarial Chinese, Koreans and Mexicans aren’t overly impressed. They see him as inconsequential. He neither makes any real deals, nor has he the ability to change the landscape. He is but a speed bump, an inconvenience to be minimized and suffered through. Trump talks/talks some more. # Sorry and weak. So sad. “Farewell awhile to thee and thou, my native land good night.”

    • Avatar

      And Hillary would have been a better choice? Go back on your meds, pal.

      • Avatar

        I am beginning to think she would have been …. at least we woould have an enemy we KNOW.
        I did not think it possible for there to be a worse government than Obama or W-rong Bush, but I do believe Trump is going to surpass them ……………… God Save America.
        Donald Trump and his christian.zionist CULT members are actually making Kim Jun Ill look honest, rational and reasonable.
        Can you grasp this? “No low IQ muslim would love the tormentors and crucifiers of their prophet.” But these C-Z idiots GROVEL to the Temple priests.
        Bolton, Pence, Haley, Pompeo, the Huckabees, Ivanka & Donald Trump, Betrayers of CHRIST, Traitors of America. Get them out of Our government. Not only are they mental cases, they are STUPID.
        These C-Z cowards are all about preaching for war — but ALL of them REFUSED TO SERVE. “Chrystyans” that want war but none of them or their children will fight or sacrifice.
        They think precipitating a war that kills Billions of humans will bring about the return of the PRINCE of PEACE ! “christian.zionazi” is really just islamic.jihadism in different clothes. To claim they are going to “Build the THIRD Temple” is proof they know nothing of Christianity. To claim the Third Temple is yet to be built is to Deny Jesus Christ. Jesus “The LAMB of GOD” —IS— the Third Temple. The THIRD Temple (Jesus) was “raised up in three days” on Easter Morning.
        christianzionazis are betrayers of Christ and betrayers of America.

    • Avatar

      100% correct … and just scratching the surface:
      “GREAT” Nations do not pay TRIBUTE to foreign places.
      If Israel can send rockets to the moon . … why is tRUMP giving Israel CHARITY money stolen from working AMERICAN people? No hungry children or elderly in need of help HERE, hell no. P.S. Every dollar America gives to Socialist Israel is borrowed AT INTEREST from Communist China.
      Trump says we can afford to borrow $38BILLION from Communist China to GIVE to Socialist Israel, above and beyond the $4-5Billion we GIVE them every year …… then he Lets the Dual-Citizens like Feinstien, Schumer, SHIFF, Blumenthal, etc .. BLOCK the wall needed to protect YOUR Family.
      OH, we cannot afford $25Billion for Our wall. But we build Israel’s 25 foot wall
      We cannot afford NATO or Palestinian Aid or most anything else.
      All we can afford is Tribute to ISRAEL. “Putting WHO First”? Making WHO Great Again?

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    @ MLOPEZ Pick up a gun and stand a watch, mouth.

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    NOT SO FAST ……
    Opinion: Behind that great GDP number, the real economy slumped
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/behind-t…slumping-2019-04-26

    P.S. Tax cut’s effect wears off
    It may be coincidence, it may be statistical noise, but the economic momentum has slowed since the big tax cut was passed.

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    Wow–those analysts who estimated the GDP growth sure were wrong–by a very great margin.

    The Demwits are already spinning this serendipitous news of 3.2% GDP growth as a negative, just like they did about the ‘crumbs’ returned to middle-class taxpayers.

    These are not rational human beings.

    Dems and the NeverTrumpers appear to succumb with increasing frequency to apoplectic rages which manifest in comments of unparalleled prolixity and pompous verbosity. These are the telling signs of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), a real and debilitating medical, social, political, mental, and spiritual condition.

    Those of us with functioning cerebrums ignore Trump’s style, and analyze his actions and results. A dispassionate economic assessment of Trump’s policies and results show that Trump has delivered a series of economic successes, including record low unemployment and rising wages, which have inspired a measured optimism in the nation.

    A virtuous circle of economic growth has been started, and despite the sour pessimism of the Left, the economy is looking good.

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    Obozo was the first President in history to NEVER achieve even 3% growth. And he created more debt than all the previous Presidents combined. Trump 2020. Fumigate the USA from Liberal and DemocRat pests.

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