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Friday, September 20, 2019
HomeNewsElectionsRepublican Ron Estes Wins Special Election for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas

Republican Ron Estes Wins Special Election for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas

Republican state treasurer Ron Estes, left, and Democrat James Thompson, candidates for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas. (Photo: AP)
Republican state treasurer Ron Estes, left, and Democrat James Thompson, candidates for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas. (Photo: AP)

Republican state treasurer Ron Estes, left, and Democrat James Thompson, candidates for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas. (Photo: AP)

Republican state treasurer Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson in the special election for the 4th Congressional District in Kansas. It’s a district President Donald J. Trump carried by roughly 30 points, but the GOP barely outspent toward the end and slept on the race until late in the game.

With 79.9% of precincts reporting, or 95,748 votes, Estes led Thompson 52.2% to 46%, underperforming in Sedgwick County and over-performing targets in rural precincts. Sedgwick represents roughly two-thirds of the district vote.

The 4th Congressional District was represented by Mike Pompeo, who the president nominated and the Senate confirmed to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He won it by more than 30 points in 2016 and Republicans have held the seat for more than two decades.

But Democrats poured tons of money into the race with the hope the president’s low national approval ratings would put the seat in play.

Estes hauled in $312,000 from the beginning of the year to March 22, according to his pre-special election report. In the last three weeks, 48-hour reports show that he gained an additional $147,000 in donations over $1,000, bringing his total contributions to at least $459,000.

Thompson trailed Estes with $254,000 as of March 22, adding an extra $38,000 in large donations in the last three weeks to total at least $292,000. In the first two months of 2017, the Kansas Democratic Party raised $224,000. Further, the liberal website Daily Kos endorsed Thompson and put out a fundraising plea with a page that raised $178,000 in donations as of Sunday.

The race was rated Likely Republican on the PPD Election Projection Model, though Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength.

Candidate Percent Votes
Ron Estes (Republican) 52.5% 63,505
James Thompson (Democratic) 45.7% 55,310
Chris Rockhold (Libertarian) 1.7% 2,082
Write In (Unaffiliated) 0.1% 90

96.6% Reporting, 120,987 Total Votes

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

Latest comments

  • Avatar

    The Polls continue to be wrong, they are a joke. The Silent majority continues to speak loudly.

    • Avatar

      6 points is hardly a “silent majority”

      • Avatar

        Your comment reminds me of the sports fan whose team lost by 6 points and whines that it was only 6 points. Bottom line; your team lost.

        • Avatar

          YOU are the one that talked about the “silent majority” you’re the one who inflates a win like it was a blowout.

          A sore loser is bad, a sore winner is worse

          • Avatar

            Not me. I just responded to your whine (need any cheese with that?). In my book, a win is a win whether it be a blowout or close.

          • Avatar

            Republicans don’t understand trends which is why they don’t believe in climate change.

          • Avatar

            Whining? Really? You just wanted to be a smart ass and you flailed around like a drowning man

      • Avatar

        Pompeo won by 30 points and this race was decided by 6. That is the take away.

        • Avatar

          Yeah, and the DNC and DCCC didn’t spend any $ in the race. Meanwhile Repubs brought in Pence and Cruz…they were afraid of losing this seat, and could have…which says a lot

  • Avatar

    Things are coming up roses for Trump and Friends as of late.

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