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Sunday, February 25, 2018

Live Election Results and Analysis: 2017 Virginia Governor Race

Virginia Election Results Graphic Only

LIVE ELECTION RESULTS

Ed Gillespie, a former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), is trying to score an upset against Democrat Lt. Governor Ralph Northam in the 2017 Virginia governor race.

The momentum in the final week appeared to be on Mr. Gillespie’s side and the intra-party fighting for Democrats could cost them. Lt. Gov. Northam will look to run up the margins in Northern Virginia, particularly in the Democratic stronghold of Fairfax County, while Mr. Gillespie will hope to hold that margin down and offset it with big margins in the West and South.

Background

Big Media has predictably attempted to paint this race as a referendum on President Donald J. Trump, which is bogus for numerous reasons. For starters, President Trump abandoned campaigning in the Commonwealth of Virginia in 2016 and lost it to Hillary Clinton.

Secondly, as the PPD Election Projection Model noted back in 2013, Virginia had elected an out-of-power candidate for governor from 1977 to 2009. That changed in 2013 when the Republican Party abandoned Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign against Governor Terry McAuliffe.

Polls

The final Virginia governor polls show Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam with a slight edge over Ed Gillespie. But as the People’s Pundit Richard Baris pointed out Monday, recent history indicates this race will be a nail-biter and the likely winner is uncertain.

Year RCP Average Actual Result Average Poll Bias Vote Turnout
2009 McDonnell +13.4% McDonnell +17.7% D+4.1 40.4%
2013 McAuliffe +6.0% McAuliffe +2.5% D+3.5 43%
2014 Warner +9.7% Warner +0.8% D+8.9%  41.6%

Overall, pollsters have overrepresented Democrats in the last two non-presidential cycle elections by an average 6.2 points, which would still be little more than a more comfortable squeaker for Mr. Gillespie.

Written by
Staff Writing Group

Led by R. D. Baris, the People's Pundit, the PPD Elections Staff conducts polling and covers news about latest polls, election results and election data.

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