No, Ted Cruz is Not the “New National Front-runner”

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll is an Outlier, Totally Bogus

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz speaks to the crowd during a Conservative Leadership Project presidential forum in Columbia, South Carolina, on Friday, January 15, 2016. (Photo: AP Photo/Sean Rayford)

A new “bombshell” NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken after the Republican debate last Saturday showed Sen. Ted Cruz ahead of Donald Trump, 28% to 26%. It set off a massive public relations push by the Texas senator and had most mediates scratching their heads, though still taking the opportunity to slam the frontrunner with headlines like “Ted on Top!”

Prior to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump led by 11 points on the have been abysmal of national polls and in more than 30 consecutive polls since November. With a trend line so dominate, it would probably have been wise for the media to proceed with caution. However, candidates, are a whole other story.

“For the first time in many months, there’s a new national frontrunner on the Republican side,” Cruz touted while kicking off a rally at a prep school gymnasium in South Carolina.

That’s flat-out nonsense, but most campaigns are expected to hype nonsense. In reality, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is an outlier, and totally bogus.

The two pollsters–Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart–have consistently missed the mark as it relates to the average and Trump’s strength among primary voters. Notice how McInturff, who released no serious or transparent cross-tab data, qualified his polling results.

“When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don’t know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers snap back into place,” he said.

I’m just going to say it: This smells like crap to me. Pollsters who honestly find extraordinary results frequently hold back surveys until they can be confirmed by duplicating them and, if those results are duplicated, they are expected and do produce internal cross-tabs and other data sets to be scrutinized by pundits such as myself and others. I suspected this to be the case as soon as the survey was released yesterday.

I’m going on the record to say new @NBCNews poll is an outlier, unless we see other real data & movement. No cross tabs, nothing.

— Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) February 18, 2016

The most recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University (PPD Pollster Scorecard: B+ Rating) showed Trump leading Cruz, his closest rival, by 20 points. More importantly, considering the poll was conducted from 2/10 to 2/15, there was no deterioration in Trump’s support nationwide in the interviews after the debate on Saturday.

“Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Mr. Malloy is actually being quite generous to the rest of the GOP field, according to our estimates on the PPD Election Projection Model. Trump has nearly an 80% chance of victory in South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday, where he holds a 17% average lead with an electorate that will be far more favorable to Mr. Cruz than it is nationwide.

Sen. Cruz, on the other hand, has only a 7%–that’s right, seven percent–chance to pull off an upset. As we previously explained, Sen. Marco Rubio has a far better chance of taking the Palmetto State than Cruz, though he trails him slightly in the state.

Now more polls are in & @NBCNews & @WSJ look like totals fools. No sign @tedcruz was on move in others. It's Bunk. https://t.co/BDHX1mtcFA

— Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) February 18, 2016

Nevertheless, with new data in hand, which shows Trump holding his commanding lead have been abysmal and in the voting states, I’ve confirmed my suspicion and the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be penalized on the PPD Pollster Scorecard for releasing what is a clear outlier poll days before a primary while offering zero evidence to back it up.

Pundit’s Perspective

What Donald Trump has done in this race is both unprecedented and extraordinary. As we’ve explained over-and-over, at least at the moment, Ted Cruz fundamentally cannot win because his “courageous conservatives” are voting for Trump. Unless we see strong evidence to contradict a six-month trend, or the other candidates drop out–preferably as early as before the South Carolina Republican primary and no later than the Nevada Republican caucus–Donald J. Trump will hold his lead and is highly likely to win the Republican nomination.

Period.

If so-called real conservatives and Republicans like Mr. McInturff (because those who support Trump are fake I guess) really want to defeat the billionaire real estate mogul, they will stop with the BS attempts to trick or discourage primary voters and take my advice. The sooner they realize they have completely lost control of the status quo, the more honest this business will become.