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Friday, September 20, 2019
HomeNewsEconomyThird Estimate for Q4 2018 Matches Forecast at 2.2%, Annual 2.9%

Third Estimate for Q4 2018 Matches Forecast at 2.2%, Annual 2.9%

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The “third” estimate for fourth quarter (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 2.2%, putting the annual growth rate at a solid 2.9%. While that’s down from 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively, it met the consensus forecast.

From Q4 2017 to Q4 2018, real GDP gained 3.0%, up from 2.5% in 2017.

The consensus forecast for Q4 GDP was 2.2%, ranging from a low of 1.8% to a high of 2.7%. The consensus for the price index was a unanimous 1.8%, while the 2.6% consensus for consumer spending ranged from 2.5% to 2.6%.

The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.7% in Q4 compared to 1.8% in Q3, just 0.1% off the forecast. The PCE price index gained 1.5%, compared to 1.6% in Q3.

Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.8%, slightly more than the increase of 1.6% in Q3.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.7% in Q4, compared with an increase of 4.6% in Q3. The average of real GDP and real GDI, which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, rose 1.9% in Q4 juxtaposed to an increase of 4.0% in Q3.

GDP 2018

As stated, real GDP rose 2.9% for 2018, while current-dollar GDP increased 5.2%, or $1.01 trillion, to a level of $20.49 trillion. The latter compares with an increase of 4.2%, or $778.2 billion, in 2017.

Real GDI increased 2.4% in 2018, compared with an increase of 2.3% in 2017.

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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