Strong Consumer Spending Fuels Stronger-than-Expected Economic Growth in Q2
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate for second quarter (Q2) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a 2.1% seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The stronger-than-anticipated reading for what was expected to be the weak quarter was fueled by stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending.
The second estimate for real GDP in Q1 2019 came in at 3.1% juxtaposed to 2.2% in Q4 2018. The percent change in real GDP in Q1 ranged from 5.2% in West Virginia to 1.2% in Hawaii.
| Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Result | |
| Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% to 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 0.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% to 4.1% | 4.3% |
| GDP Price Index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% to 2.2% | 2.4% |
| GDP Core Price Index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% to 2.0% | 2.4% |
Disposable personal income in Q2 2019 rose $193.4 billion, or 4.9%. That’s compared to an increase of $190.6 billion in Q1, or 4.8%. Real disposable personal income rose 2.5% juxtaposed to an increase of 4.4%.
Personal saving was $1.32 trillion in Q2 compared with $1.37 trillion in Q1. The personal saving rate — defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — remained very high at 8.1% in Q2. That compares with 8.5% in Q1.
