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Wednesday, June 19, 2024
HomeNewsPoliticsWhat Iowa Republican Caucus Entrance Polls, Caucus Site Turnout Mean for Results

What Iowa Republican Caucus Entrance Polls, Caucus Site Turnout Mean for Results

Iowa-Caucus-Reuters

Donald Trump Holds Slight Lead in Iowa Caucus Entrance Polls

Iowa-Caucus-Reuters

(Photo: Brian Snyder/Reuters)

UPDATE: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is currently outperforming his polling support statewide by 6 points, while Donald Trump is underperforming by 1 point. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is holding his own in third place, hurting Trump slightly more than Cruz, who remains in the leader slot. Big voting centers in Des Moines, among others, are still out.

Turnout will likely hit–if not break–150,000 on the Republican side. That, as PPD predicted, will absolutely shatter the prior caucus turnout record of 122,000-plus in 2012. Though that typically was thought to favor Trump, organization is carrying the night.

EARLIER: Several Iowa Republican caucus sites are reporting they are running out of ballots and registration forms amid high turnout in certain precincts. Donald Trump has a slight lead in the Iowa caucuses based on early entrance poll estimates, followed closely by Ted Cruz in second and Marco Rubio a fairly distant third.

Excitement and a desire for a political outsider, as well as support from first-time caucus goers are boosting Trump in entrance poll results, while Cruz is winning support from very conservative participants. But evangelical Christians are closely splitting their vote between Cruz (26%), Trump (24%), Rubio (21%) and Carson (12%).

New caucus-goers, which are making up nearly half of the electorate, are choosing Trump (44%) over Rubio (21%), with Cruz earning 18% and Carson taking 10%.

Late deciders are breaking toward Rubio with 28%, Cruz with 20%, Trump at 14% and Carson 11%. But they make up roughly a third of the caucus electorate versus nearly 48% in 2012. Outsiders are ruling the day by 51% to 43% and, of those voters, Trump is the number one choice of 49%. Only Carson and Cruz are far behind with 16%.

This one will come down to the last ballot, but as the real vote begins to come in, it appears that Cruz has a tiny lead in the raw vote. However, the sample is small and Carson’s support among evangelicals is hurting Cruz against Trump. When later results come in, considering the new participants flooding in at sites, it will be a very small margin for Cruz if he can hold on.

Cruz counties are coming in first, while counties like Dubuque, where Trump is expected to perform better than the state average, haven’t reported yet.

Written by

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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