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Friday, November 22, 2019
HomePollsDemocrats Maintain Small Lead On Generic Ballot, But Still Need To Widen Margin

Democrats Maintain Small Lead On Generic Ballot, But Still Need To Widen Margin

Generic BallotThe Democrats are maintaining a small lead over Republicans on the PPD average generic ballot, but if they don’t widen the margin they are headed for defeat.

A new Rasmussen Reports generic ballot survey found Democrats leading Republicans by just 2 points — 40 to 38 percent. However, because of the natural skew in favor of Democrats, the margin is still far too small to forecast any Democratic gains in the House, and the margin means even worse news for statewide Senate elections.

As we have previous examined, Republicans historically pick up more seats on a point-for-point basis, thus a Democratic lead of about 5 points, is likely to end up with a net 3-seat gain for the Democrats. However, a 5-point lead for Republicans will likely result in a net 15-seat gain for the GOP.

These predictions (which you can read here) are based upon a look at all 17 post-World War II midterm election results, which were compared to past generic congressional ballot results, and we drew some real conclusions all other variables excluded. There is an upside for Democrats, however.

Because of the massive Republican gains in 2010, there are fewer opportunities for the party in the 2014 midterms, thus Republican pickup opportunities are likely to be limited.

View PPD Generic Ballot Average Or Weekly Tracking Data From Rasmussen Reports Below

The latest national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 7 -April 13, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.

DATE DEM GOP
04-13-14 40% 38%
04-06-14 40% 39%
03-30-14 39% 38%
03-23-14 41% 37%
03-16-14 38% 39%
03-09-14 39% 39%
03-02-14 39% 36%
02-23-14 41% 37%
02-16-14 41% 37%
02-09-14 40% 38%
02-04-14 39% 40%
01-26-14 42% 37%
01-19-14 41% 35%
01-12-14 41% 37%
01-05-14 40% 38%
12-29-13 40% 40%
12-22-13 39% 42%
12-15-13 40% 40%
12-08-13 38% 43%
12-01-13 38% 43%
11-24-13 41% 40%
11-17-13 39% 40%
11-10-13 41% 39%
11-03-13 43% 37%
10-27-13 43% 37%
10-20-13 43% 36%
10-13-13 45% 38%
10-06-13 40% 40%
09-29-13 42% 38%
09-22-13 40% 37%
09-15-13 38% 38%
09-08-13 39% 39%
09-01-13 39% 37%
08-25-13 38% 39%
08-18-13 38% 38%
08-11-13 39% 39%
08-04-13 38% 41%
07-28-13 39% 38%
07-21-13 40% 38%
07-14-13 38% 39%
07-07-13 39% 40%
06-30-13 38% 39%
06-23-13 40% 39%
06-16-13 39% 39%
06-09-13 40% 38%
06-02-13 40% 40%
05-26-13 41% 39%
05-19-13 39% 40%
05-11-13 40% 38%
05-05-13 40% 38%
04-28-13 39% 40%
04-21-13 41% 39%
04-14-13 42% 38%
04-07-13 41% 38%
03-31-13 44% 37%
03-24-13 43% 38%
03-17-13 43% 38%
03-10-13 43% 40%
03-03-13 43% 40%
02-24-13 43% 38%
02-17-13 43% 37%
02-10-13 42% 39%
02-03-13 44% 38%
01-27-13 45% 37%
01-20-13 44% 39%
01-13-13 43% 37%
01-06-13 44% 38%
For complete Generic Ballot history, Click Here.
Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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