Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 9-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania has evaporated, down to just 2 points in the 4-way race. Ahead of the first presidential debate on Monday, a new Muhlenberg College Morning Call Poll finds Mrs. Clinton leading with just 40% to 38% for Mr. Trump, 8% for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 3% for Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.
The poll, if accurate, is significant for one major reason.
Over the last few weeks, nearly all of the battleground states have moved markedly in Mr. Trump’s favor, putting him within grasp of the needed 270 electoral votes to defeat Mrs. Clinton, who has a far easier path. But the Keystone State, a rich target state for Trump’s message that hasn’t gone for the Republican candidate for president since 1988, has been stubborn.
“Simply put, Donald Trump needs one more big state to move his way to win in November, or a combination of other smaller states,” says PPD’s senior political analyst Richard D. Baris. “He’s pulled significantly further ahead of Hillary Clinton in Ohio, but it’s a whiter state.”
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mrs. Clinton’s lead expands to a slightly larger 3 points, 44% to 41%, which is still within the 4-point margin of error. The race, clearly tightening, now moves from LEANS CLINTON to BATTLEGROUND on the PPD 2016 Presidential Election Projection Model.
In the United States Senate race Republican incumbent Senator Pat Toomey holds a 1-point lead over Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. This lead marks a 6-point gain for Toomey over last week’s results when he trailed McGinty by 5 points.
The Senate for U.S. Senate remains a BATTLEGROUND on the PPD 2016 Senate Election Projection Model.