Rising Mortgage Rates Push Builder Confidence to Lowest Reading Since August 2016

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in November came in at 60, falling 6 points to the lowest reading on builder confidence since August 2016. The consensus was looking for 66, with forecasts ranging from 66 to 69 after a 68 reading in October.

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Released On 11/19/2018 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2018

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Housing Market Index 68  68  66  to 69  60

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“For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” Robert Dietz from NAHB said. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

“As a consequence, builders have adopted a more cautious approach to market conditions.

All of the major HMI indices posted declines. By region, the South and West both fell to 65 with the Midwest and Northeast fell to 54 and 52, respectively.

The current sales conditions index declined 7 points to 67, the component gauging expectations in the next 6 months fell 10 points to 65 and buyer traffic posted an 8-point decline to 45.

The 3-month moving averages for regional HMI score for the Northeast rose 2 points to 58, while the Midwest fell 1 point to 57 and the South fell 2 points to 68. The West declined 3 points to 71.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index has gauged builders’ perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The 30-year survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.