New Residential Construction: Housing Starts, Building Permits Match Forecast for October

The new residential construction report for October 2018 finds housing starts and permits roughly matched their respective consensus forecasts. Below is the forecast table and the entire report from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The Housing Market Index (HMI)

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Released On 11/20/2018 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2018

Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Starts – Level – SAAR 1.201 M 1.210 M 1.240 M 1.180 M to 1.269 M 1.228 M Permits – Level – SAAR 1.241 M 1.270 M 1.260 M 1.224 M to 1.285 M 1.263 M

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From U.S. Census report:

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,263,000.  This is 0.6 percent (±2.4 percent)* below the revised September rate of 1,270,000 and is 6.0 percent (±1.6 percent) below the October 2017 rate of 1,343,000.  Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 849,000; this is 0.6 percent (±2.2 percent)* below the revised September figure of 854,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 376,000 in October.

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,228,000.  This is 1.5 percent (±12.9 percent)* above the revised September estimate of 1,210,000, but is 2.9 percent (±10.4 percent)* below the October 2017 rate of 1,265,000.  Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 865,000; this is 1.8 percent (±10.8 percent)* below the revised September figure of 881,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 343,000.

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,111,000.  This is 3.3 percent (±10.5 percent)* below the revised September estimate of 1,149,000 and is 6.5 percent (±9.2 percent)* below the October 2017 rate of 1,188,000.  Single‐family housing completions in October were at a rate of 832,000; this is 1.2 percent (±10.6 percent)* below the revised September rate of 842,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 269,000