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Friday, August 23, 2019
HomeNewsEconomySecond Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Remains Strong at 3.1%

Second Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Remains Strong at 3.1%

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Real GDP for Q1 2019 Down Just 0.1%, Beating Consensus Forecast

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second estimate for first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 3.1%, beating the consensus forecast. In Q4, the U.S. economy as measured by real GDP rose 2.2%.

While the advance estimate for Q1 2019 GDP was 3.2%, both readings have beaten their respective consensus forecasts.


PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR3.2%3.0%2.9% to 3.4%3.1%
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR1.2%1.2%1.2% to 1.2%1.3%
GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR0.9%0.9%0.3% to 1.7%0.8%
GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR1.3%1.3%1.3% to 1.4%1.2%

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.4% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 0.5% (revised) in Q4 2018.

The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — rose 2.2% in Q1 2019 versus an increase of 1.3% in Q4 2018.

Current–dollar GDP gained 3.6%, or $183.7 billion, in Q1 2019 to $21.05 trillion. In Q4 2018, current-dollar GDP rose 4.1%, or by $206.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 0.7% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 1.7% in Q4 2019. The PCE price index gained 0.4% versus an increase of 1.5% in Q4 2019.

Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index gained 1.0%, compared with 1.8% the prior quarter.

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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