Real GDP for Q1 2019 Down Just 0.1%, Beating Consensus Forecast
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second estimate for first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 3.1%, beating the consensus forecast. In Q4, the U.S. economy as measured by real GDP rose 2.2%.
While the advance estimate for Q1 2019 GDP was 3.2%, both readings have beaten their respective consensus forecasts.
| Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual | |
| Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% to 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% to 1.2% | 1.3% |
| GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% to 1.7% | 0.8% |
| GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% to 1.4% | 1.2% |
Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.4% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 0.5% (revised) in Q4 2018.
The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — rose 2.2% in Q1 2019 versus an increase of 1.3% in Q4 2018.
Current–dollar GDP gained 3.6%, or $183.7 billion, in Q1 2019 to $21.05 trillion. In Q4 2018, current-dollar GDP rose 4.1%, or by $206.9 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 0.7% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 1.7% in Q4 2019. The PCE price index gained 0.4% versus an increase of 1.5% in Q4 2019.
Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index gained 1.0%, compared with 1.8% the prior quarter.
