The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up slightly to -0.02, near the average for June and ensuring a rate cut won’t lead to overheating. The three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) also ticked up to –0.26 from –0.27 in May.
| Prior | Revised | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Results | |
| CFNAI | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.30 to 0.10 | -0.02 |
| CFNAI-MA3 | –0.17 | –0.27 | — | — | -0.26 |
Forty of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI, while 45 made negative contributions in June. Thirty-six indicators improved and 49 deteriorated. Of those that improved, 9 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators were neutral contribution in June, down from +0.08 in May. Industrial production was flat, as utilities offset mining and manufacturing.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in June, up from –0.08 in May. The Employment Situation (jobs report) for June reported the U.S. economy added a stronger than expected 224,000 jobs, bouncing back after a gain of 72,000 in the previous month.
