National Home Price (HPI) NSA Index Beats Annual Forecast, 20-City Monthly Gain Steady
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price (HPI) NSA Index covering all 9 U.S. census divisions posted a 3.2% annual gain in July, beating the forecast. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, down slightly from 2.2%.
The lesser-cited 10-City Composite posted an annual increase of 1.6%, also down slightly from 1.9%.
Forecasts
Forecasts saw the national non-seasonally adjusted index coming in at a gain of 0.1% and a gain of 0.4% for the seasonally-adjusted index, both of which hit the mark.
However, the 20-city NSA came in higher than the 2.1% forecast.
| Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual | |
| 20-city, SA – M/M | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% to 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 20-city, NSA – M/M | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% to 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% to 2.5% | 3.2% |
Regional Year-Over-Year
“Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates,” Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said. “Charlotte surpassed Tampa to join the top three cities, and Seattle may be turning around from its recent negative streak of YOY price changes, improving from -1.3% in June to -0.06% in July.”
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte posted the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Phoenix led the 20-city with a 5.8% year-over-year gain, followed by Las Vegas with a 4.7% gain and Charlotte closely behind with a 4.6% gain.
Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2019 versus the year ending June 2019.
“Overall, leadership remains in the southwest (Phoenix and Las Vegas) and southeast (Charlotte and Tampa),” Murphy added. “Other pockets of relative strength include Minneapolis, which increased its YOY gain to 4.2%, and Detroit, which is closely behind at 4.1% YOY.”
“However, the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index remained steady with a YOY price gain of 3.2%, the same as prior month.”
UPDATE
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) gained 0.4% in July and 5.0% year-over-year from July 2018, also beating the consensus forecasts.
