CFNAI Unexpectedly Rebounds, Led By Production and Employment
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 2.61 in May from -17.89 in April, fueled by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators. The better than expected result indicates economic growth rebounded strongly in May.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -10.00 to a high of -4.00. The consensus forecast was -4.00, indicating economists expected continued contraction for the month.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity derived from four broad categories: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in May, and all four categories increased from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –6.65 in May from –7.50 in April.