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Tuesday, June 25, 2024
HomeNewsPoliticsBig Problem with Jeb Bush Claiming to Bret Baier He’ll Drive Voter Turnout

Big Problem with Jeb Bush Claiming to Bret Baier He’ll Drive Voter Turnout

Bret-Baier-Jeb-Bush
Bret-Baier-Jeb-Bush

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush sits in an interview with FOX News’ Bret Baier that will air in its entirety next week.

In an interview with FOX News’ Bret Baier, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said he will run a campaign that will inspire and drive turnout, “particularly among people who are conservative and just don’t know it yet.”

“I’m going to win the nomination and I’m going to run a campaign that will inspire people that their lives can get better,” Gov. Bush said. “That will drive turnout, particularly among people who are conservative and just don’t know it yet.”

However, despite Mr. Bush’s claims, according to PPD’s research, which has been tracking GOP enthusiasm as a whole and for individual candidates, Republican donors are the only bloc excited about him taking on Hillary Clinton.

Since December 2014, 51 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning independents on average have said say they are less likely to vote in 2016 if Jeb Bush is the nominee, and 48 percent of all registered voters say they definitely will not vote for another Bush. Further, just 29 percent of Republicans say the former Florida governor should’ve run for president in 2016. But even among these voters, just 14 percent say they would definitely vote for Bush in their state primary or caucus.

What are the top reasons Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are opposed to a Bush candidacy/presidency?

While his stance on Common Core — the increasingly and broadly unpopular education standards — certainly hurts Mr. Bush, it isn’t the number one reason voters won’t support him.

“We don’t need another Bush in the White House” tops the list with 42 percent, while “his stance on Common Core” (19 percent) is a distant second. His stance on immigration reform is a deal-breaker to only 10 percent.

In 2012, we observed millions of white voters — particularly working class and educated voters without a graduate degree — in the Midwest and Northern states stay home rather than vote for Gov. Romney. In 2014, those voters largely came back in states with competitive races. As of now, though this could change, Jeb is just not inspiring them.

TRANSCRIPT

BRET BAIER, SPECIAL REPORT: What’s the biggest vulnerability for Hillary Clinton?

JEB BUSH, REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT: It’s her, just this protective shield she wants to create around her candidacy. I just don’t think it’s going to work, and the fact that she can’t be trusted. There is never a straight answer, Whether it’s the server, the emails, benghazi, just constantly, you know, validates this notion that there are two sets of rules.

BAIER: So when somebody says, you know, if it’s Clinton vs. Bush, it’s going to drive down participation, people are not going to be motivated to head to the polls, what do you say to them?

BUSH: I’m going to win the nomination and I’m going to run a campaign that will inspire people that their lives can get better. That will drive turnout, particularly among people who are conservative and just don’t know it yet.

Written by

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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