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HomePollsPoll: Jeb Bush Candidacy Will Depress Republican Voter Turnout

Poll: Jeb Bush Candidacy Will Depress Republican Voter Turnout


Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. (Matt Rourke/AP Photo)

The donor class and notoriously inaccurate pollsters may be excited over another Bush running for the White House, but Republican voters aren’t. A new PPD survey finds a slim majority — 51 percent — of Republican and Republican-leaning independents say they are less likely to vote in 2016 if Jeb Bush is the nominee, and 48 percent of registered voters say they definitely will not vote for another Bush.

Further, just 29 percent of Republicans say the former Florida governor should run for president in 2016, but even among these voters, just 14 percent say they will definitely vote for Bush in their state primary or caucus.

What are the top reasons Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are opposed to a Bush candidacy/presidency?

While his stance on Common Core — the increasingly and broadly unpopular education standards — certainly hurts Mr. Bush, it isn’t the number one reason voters won’t support him.

“We don’t need another Bush in the White House” tops the list with 42 percent, while “his stance on Common Core” (19 percent) is a distant second.

“Gov. Jeb Bush appears to be slightly ahead of the crowded 2016 GOP presidential field according to some polls,” says PPD’s senior political analyst, R.D. Baris. “But that’s only because GOP primary voters haven’t coalesced behind a single figure, and unlike 2012, the party has a very deep bench.”

As of Dec. 29, 2014, Jeb Bush tops the PPD average of 2016 Republican nomination polls by 5.8 percent, largely due to a CNN/Opinion Research Poll that found a larger-than-average 10-point spread. Nevertheless, even if Bush made it to the general election, the PPD Poll suggests he may face a similar problem that potentially cost Mitt Romney the 2012 presidential election.

“In 2012, we saw millions of white voters in the Midwest and Northern states stay home rather than vote for Gov. Romney,” Baris added. “In 2014, those voters largely came back in states with competitive races. As of now, though this could change, Jeb is just not inspiring them.”

Working white voters have abandoned the Democratic Party in recent elections. Yet, Baris says it isn’t enough for them to simply not support Democrats, but they also have to vote Republican for the GOP to overcome their built-in electoral vote deficit.

“By nominating an unexciting candidate in 2016, the GOP will throw away a perfectly winnable election,” he said. “Populous, personable candidates fare far better in states Republicans must win for the map to work for them. Jeb is too much like Dad and too little like big brother.”

Similarly, a recent Rasmussen survey of a 1,000 likely Republican voters found just 33 percent believe Bush should run for president in 2016, while just as many (34 percent) disagree, and another 33 percent are not sure.

The PPD Poll surveyed 1,000 likely Republican voters (2,010 registered voters) nationwide from December 27 – 28, 2014. The margin of error for the GOP subsample is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.


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Latest comment



    American People just about had it with King Obama, his lot and the Republican

    Sadly, the GOP has lost all sense of responsibility and accountability, but is
    not tied to the same brush as physical Conservatives and the National Tea

    Perhaps they have succumbed to the backroom deals, unethical maneuvers and
    devious manipulation not dissimilar to the liberals in Washington. Or, maybe they’re just
    that stupid.

    I don’t know, but I do know this. IGNORE THE

    We don’t care how many names we get
    called, how many threats we get or how p*ssed off we make the GOP leaders, the
    Leftists or anyone in Washington but…the Tea Party WILL continue to stand up
    for what we believe in. Theirs the true voice, not the lies and rhetoric
    administered by the Left and Ultra right wing media.

    The Tea Party is your eyes, ears and your voice in Washington. We are growing by
    leaps and bounds but we don’t have the deep pockets that Republicans and
    Democrats have. But we keep on pulling through. We don’t have the backing of
    big business, Industry, agricultural, service industries that make a killing on
    illegal alien profit, nor the Democrats who get their pay off from unions,
    socialist-Communistic donors as George Soros and the radical minority groups as
    La Raza, that dips their hand in the till of government grants.

    And we certainly don’t have big PAC money or the soiled money of the lobbyists
    behind us.

    All of the battles we fight every day drain it very quickly.

    Average Americans donate to the spreading word of the Tea Party, as it is that
    simple. And you cannot count on the GOP. They cave too easily. That’s why in 2015, I will be voting for
    Doctor Ben Carson. This man has more commonsense, to put this nation on the
    right track. There is no way as an Independent (before Democrat) that I would
    vote for Jeb Bush. Certainly not voting for GOP Elites, that’s for sure?

    The Tea Party is all you have. We are the true American Patriots who have not
    succumbed to greed and temptation but instead still hold true our Founding
    Fathers’ vision near and dear—unlike the GOP.

    We are the party who plans to save our Constitution from becoming perverted
    carnage, remains in the rubble that Washington has destroyed. The Tea
    Party is not the Party of give-a-ways in hope you will vote for them. They
    don’t chase the ‘Freeloader’ votes who either forgot what work is or they have
    exhibited any qualms to finding a job, knowing the Obama and his simpleton
    goons will carry them with food stamps and a spread of free programs. Even
    Obama’s Affordable Care Act will be available to illegal aliens; those without
    jobs will gain subsidies, while American workers break their backs, to pay for
    it all.

    me, its one carefully constructed conspiracy as entering America has no real penalty. It
    is a conceived plan to attract cheap labor, for the Republican Establishment
    happy cash donors. For the Democrats, similar but its main impact millions of
    more votes. Just read today that if, IF Obamas abhorrent plan to achieve
    amnesty for 5 million illegal aliens. The agricultural workforce will desert
    the fields and farmers will have empty acreage as laborers handed a free ticket
    will head across the country stealing jobs from poor Americans, spreading even
    more poverty; therefore the whole insipid game of a desperate need for more
    fruit and vegetable pickers will be demanded and the whisper will carry to
    every corner of South America, and the monolithic magnet of jobs will start new
    surges again.

    92 million Americans are seeking work, full time or even a few hours to feed
    their families have been forced into the entrapment of food stamps and other
    welfare, seeing no decent future. While employers without ethics and morally
    sick will hire foreigners prior to the Obama amnesty abomination and with the
    inception, if the high court doesn’t condemn it. The Cardinal Rule is every
    jobless American picks up the phone and demands a sound border fence and that
    all freebies stop to foreigners, including child tax fraudulent for ITIN holders.
    6 Billion dollars are being siphoned off by illegal alien applications. To be
    truthful we need a new tax system, which is not corrupted by loopholes for the
    wealthy, big unions. So many loopholes you could drive a German ‘Tiger’ tank
    through it. It’s just like the 1.1 Trillion dollar spending spree just passed
    by a corrupt Senate.

    the fact that all these cornucopias of free programs exist, brings millions of
    foreign nationals to our doors, to break in no matter the consequences. But
    thanks to the E-Media and the Internet itself, they are being hounded by public
    militias and the words broadcast to the people. The instigators in both parties
    can no longer hide the facts that they are committed to K Street lobbyist or crony
    interests, who pay their way. It’s a stealth crime played on all Americans who
    pay the bills. The American People don’t own the Public Servants in Washington,
    the wealthy industrialist and business does.

    But we need you—America’s grassroots army—to
    keep us going and continue our fight in Washington. WANT TO PURSUE EVERY SENATOR AND CONGRESSMAN and bomb these phone
    Numbers and Mailing Addresses of Members of Congress
    at: http://www.contactingthecongress.org
    / or http://www.usa.gov/Contact/US-Congress.shtml
    / The TEA PARTY members are urged to pick-up the phone. US Capitol Switchboard (202)
    224-3121; (the toll free
    number is 1- 866-220-0044)
    and join other conservatives who are committed to flood the phone lines on
    Capitol Hill with this simple message,.’ IGNORE THE PEOPLE AT YOUR OWN PERIL.’ A
    very reliable website designed for those against illegal immigration is Americans
    for Legal Immigration PAC http://www.alipac.us/ The most important site to witness is
    NumbersUSA, http://.www.http://www.numbersusa.com
    /who want to block illegal immigration.

    You know that the TEA PARTY will not compromise what we Patriots collectively
    believe in or the values we uphold. You can count on it. It’s beyond
    comprehension that a government elected by the people, would reward 5 million
    illegal aliens who criminally entered America across areas of open
    border or sneaked in as counterfeit tourist never to return to their home
    country. On the flimsy border itself the inhabitants of the US counties live in
    constant fear, in fact every state has become a border? What does the US
    Government do for these people—next to nothing? The sheriffs have hardly any
    officers and are under-supplied with enforcement assets. It’s a joke.

    I watched a TV cable show that illustrates the spreading nightmare along the
    border. In many areas reaching into the heartland of America are danger signs,
    warning Americans to stay off public land. National Parks those cameras are not
    allowed, and will be confiscated and you will be fined for entering. The Land
    belongs to the American People and we cannot go there, because of smugglers are
    armed with AK 47. We are kept in the dark because government officials don’t
    want us to know how they are failing to protect Americans. We send our military
    to fight far away wars in the Middle East, but within our
    nation’s border, its like Afghanistan or Iraq all over again. Send
    our returning troops to border, fully armed a ready to maim or kill. Every one
    of the 50 states is now a border state.

    With your help we can continue to be your voice in Washington—the thorn in the side
    of lawmakers who would sooner sell their own souls than represent the will of
    the people.

    The Tea
    Party has your back. Do you have there’s.?

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