Republican frontrunner and billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump now leads every Democratic candidate in head-to-head match-ups, even Hillary Clinton. The poll comes as the latest inevitability-probability index shows 66% of likely Republican voters now say it is at least “somewhat” likely that Donald Trump will be the 2016 Republican nominee for president.
In a new poll conducted by SurveyUSA (PPD Pollster Scorecard Rating: B+), Trump leads the current Democratic frontrunner and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton 45% to 40%; socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 44% to 40%; former vice president Al Gore 44% 5o 41%; and current Vice President Joe Biden 44% to 42%. When polling a subset of registered voters who told SurveyUSA that they pay “a lot” of attention to politics–or, what are typically converted into “likely voters”–Trump and Republicans in general are running far ahead of the potential 2016 Democratic hopefuls. Further, Republicans, particularly The Donald, have all the energy on their side.
Among these voters, Trump leads Clinton by nearly 20 points (54% to 36%); Sanders by 53% to 39%; Gore by 54% to 36%, as well; and Biden 53% to 37%. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Clinton voters say they are voting enthusiastically, with only 8% of Clinton supporters saying they are holding their nose.
Trump’s lead comes from a wide 18-point advantage among seniors versus Clinton, 13 points versus Sanders, 7 points against Biden and 19 points versus Gore. Further, Trump carries the battleground Midwest anywhere from 18 points against Hillary to 19 points again Biden. Sanders loses the Midwest to Trump by a narrower but still large 13-point margin. Moderate voters back Trump over Clinton, Gore and Sanders, but choose Biden by 6 points.
Demographically, Trump is earning a whopping 25% of the black vote against Hillary nationwide, and 31% of the Hispanic vote. To put this into perspective, let’s look at the 2012 presidential election. Had Romney won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, he still would’ve lost. However, if he would’ve won 10% to 13% of the black vote, he would be president right now.