The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was –0.15 in May, down from +0.42 in April and way below the 0.37 consensus forecast. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.18 in May from +0.48 in April.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.10 in May from +0.23 in April. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 46 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from April to May, while 42 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.
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