BEA Reports Downward Revisions to Personal Income Under Obama, Upward Revisions Under Trump
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported personal income rose $83.6 billion (0.4%) in June, beating the consensus forecast.
Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $69.7 billion, or 0.4%. Real DPI increased 0.3% in June. Consumer spending as gauged by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.0 billion, or 0.3%.
| Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Results | |
| Personal Income – M/M ∆ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Consumer Spending – M/M ∆ | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.4% | 0.3% |
| PCE Price Index M/M ∆ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Core PCE price index – M/M ∆ | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.2% |
| PCE Price Index Y/Y ∆ | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% to 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Core PCE price index – Yr/Yr ∆ | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% to 1.8% | 1.6% |
Consumer spending, which met the forecast for June, rose solidly by 0.4% in May and 0.6% in April. It drove a stronger-than-expected advance estimate for second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP).
Real PCE rose by 0.2% and the PCE price index rose 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index gained 0.2%.
Important Personal Income Revisions
Most interestingly, the BEA released important revisions dating back to 2014. All downward revisions to personal income gains transpired under the Obama Administration.
All upward revisions to personal income came under the Trump Administration.
Personal income was revised down $0.1 billion, or less than -0.1% in 2014; down $1.8 billion, or less than -0.1% in 2015; and down $4.0 billion, or less than -0.1% in 2016.
It was revised up $47.9 billion, or 0.3% in 2017; and up $249.6 billion, or 1.4% in 2018.
