The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose from -0.51 to -0.25 in January, beating the consensus forecast and indicating an uptick in growth. That increase comes after a sharp decrease in December and a rebound in November.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -0.9 to a high of -0.2. The consensus forecast was -0.6.
All four broad categories of indicators rose, but only one made a positive contribution to the index in January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to –0.09 from –0.23.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index — also a three-month moving average — rose to –0.16 in January from –0.25 in December. Thirty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI, while 49 made negative contributions.
Fifty-six indicators improved from December to January, while 27 indicators deteriorated. Two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 30 made negative contributions.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity derived from four broad categories: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.