Production- and Employment-Indicators Drove Down Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
Chicago, Ill. (PPD) — The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –4.19 in March from +0.06 in February, fueled by declines in production- and employment-related indicators.
All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and three of the four categories decreased. The CFNAI-MA3 — the three-month moving average — fell to –1.47 in March from –0.20.
Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index — also a three-month moving average — fell to –0.32 in March from –0.21. Eighteen (18) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 65 made negative contributions and two made neutral contributions.
Twenty-two (22) indicators improved in March, while 63 indicators deteriorated. Of the improved indicators, 9 made negative contributions.