Jobless Claims Worse than Forecast, But Continue Trending Down
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected by 3,839,000 for the week ending April 25, due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s a decrease of 603,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised (15,000) level of 4,442,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 2,000,000 to a high of 3,700,000. The consensus forecast was 3,500,000. Roughly 30 million Americans are now out of work as a result of the efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
The 4-week moving average was 5,033,250, a decline of 757,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 3,750 from 5,786,500 to 5,790,250.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose again to 12.4% for the week ending April 18. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the series.
The first high during the current crisis was recorded at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0%.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 18 was 17,992,000, an increase of 2,174,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series.
The previous week’s level was revised down by 158,000 from 15,976,000 to 15,818,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,292,500, an increase of 3,733,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 39,000 from 9,598,250 to 9,559,250.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending April 11.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 11 were in Michigan (21.8), Vermont (21.2), Connecticut (18.5), Pennsylvania (18.5), Nevada (16.8), Rhode Island (16.7), Washington (16.0), Alaska (15.6), New York (14.4), and West Virginia (14.4).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in Florida (+326,251), Connecticut (+68,758), West Virginia (+31,811), Louisiana (+12,270), and Texas (+6,504), while the largest decreases were in New York (-189,517), California (-127,112), Michigan (-85,500), Georgia (-72,578), and Washington (-60,980)